AMERICAN HIGH Mutual Fund Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| AHTFX Fund | USD 9.75 -0.04 -0.41% |
AMERICAN HIGH's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American High Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past AMERICAN HIGH observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older American High Income observations. AMERICAN HIGH's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American High Income on the next trading day is expected to be 9.75 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0004 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.92 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMERICAN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMERICAN HIGH's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMERICAN HIGH | AMERICAN HIGH Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for American High Income focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 9.55 on the downside to about 9.95 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMERICAN HIGH mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMERICAN HIGH mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 3.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0153 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0016 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.92 |
Other Forecasting Options for AMERICAN HIGH
Analyzing AMERICAN HIGH's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in AMERICAN HIGH's chart can signal overbought or oversold conditions.AMERICAN HIGH Related Equities
Sizing up AMERICAN HIGH against these stocks within the High Yield Bond space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across AMERICAN HIGH's peer group.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMERICAN HIGH Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for AMERICAN HIGH mutual fund provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. These metrics are widely used to refine market timing and identify favorable moments to trade AMERICAN HIGH.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 9.75 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 9.75 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.04 |
AMERICAN HIGH Risk Indicators
Assessing AMERICAN HIGH's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Forecasting AMERICAN HIGH's future price accurately requires understanding and quantifying the risks present in the investment.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1436 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.1957 | |||
| Variance | 0.0383 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AMERICAN HIGH
Story coverage around American High Income often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.