Alamos Gold Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AGI Stock | CAD 55.09 2.39 4.54% |
The Simple Moving Average forecast shown here for Alamos Gold is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Simple Moving Average output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Alamos Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 55.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28 and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.03.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of Alamos Gold price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of Alamos Gold. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average reference page for Alamos Gold presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of Alamos Gold on the next trading day is expected to be 55.09 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.28 , mean absolute percentage error of 7.98 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 137.03 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Alamos Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Alamos Gold's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Alamos Gold | Alamos Gold Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Alamos Gold for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Alamos Gold stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Alamos Gold stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.3494 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0031 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.2838 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0385 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 137.025 |
Other Forecasting Options for Alamos Gold
The distribution of Alamos Gold's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Alamos Gold's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Alamos Gold's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Alamos.Alamos Gold Related Equities
The peer firms below within the Materials space can help frame Alamos Gold's pricing and running costs in context. Market cap and total value checks frame Alamos Gold's size within the competitive field.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Alamos Gold Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Alamos Gold give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Alamos Gold. Market strength analysis for Alamos Gold works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Alamos Gold, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
Alamos Gold Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Alamos Gold's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Alamos Gold's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Alamos Gold's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Alamos Gold's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 3.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.43 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.95 | |||
| Variance | 15.59 | |||
| Downside Variance | 22.15 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Alamos Gold
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Alamos Gold can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.
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Alamos Gold Short Properties
Short-interest signals around Alamos Gold can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 422.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 680.8 M |
More Resources for Alamos Stock Analysis
Understanding Alamos Gold starts with its core financial statements, trend data, and ratio analysis. The reports below outline key financial context for Alamos Gold Stock:Projections for Alamos Gold can be cross-referenced against Historical Fundamental Analysis of Alamos Gold data. Exploring Alamos Stock for the first time? Start with our How to Buy Alamos Stock step-by-step guide. It provides a clear overview of how to add Alamos Gold to your portfolio. It is a useful companion to the data and analysis available on this page for Alamos Stock.Alamos Gold at P/E 50.23 and ROE 22.06% (23.13 Billion market cap) - this analysis works best as a complementary layer when evaluating how the position fits in a broader portfolio. The market appears to be paying up for strong returns - checking whether growth justifies that premium matters. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.