Applied Finance Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression
| AFALX Fund | USD 12.19 -0.13 -1.06% |
The Simple Regression reference data for Applied Finance is derived from the equity's published trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Applied Finance Core on the next trading day is expected to be 12.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.10.In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Applied Finance Core historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data. All forecast values on this page for Applied Finance Core are Simple Regression reference data derived from historical price series. Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Applied Finance Core on the next trading day is expected to be 12.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.10 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Applied Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Applied Finance's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Applied Finance | Applied Finance Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Applied Finance's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 12.12 on the downside to about 13.45 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Applied Finance mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Applied Finance mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.2477 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2113 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0168 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.1019 |
Other Forecasting Options for Applied Finance
For both new and experienced investors in Applied, the ability to analyze Applied Finance's price movement is a fundamental investment skill. Price chart noise in Applied Mutual Fund can create false signals and mislead investment decisions.Applied Finance Related Equities
The following equities are related to Applied Finance within the Large Value space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Applied Finance against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Applied Finance Market Strength Events
Tracking market strength indicators for Applied Finance provides context for understanding the momentum dynamics of the mutual fund in real time. These signals support informed decisions about when to enter or exit positions in Applied Finance Core for maximum return potential.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 12.19 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 12.19 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.13 |
Applied Finance Risk Indicators
Properly assessing Applied Finance's risk indicators is a prerequisite for building reliable price forecasts. Identifying and quantifying the risks associated with Applied Finance's allows investors to make better-informed decisions about accepting or hedging their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5096 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.6522 | |||
| Variance | 0.4254 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Applied Finance
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Applied Finance Core can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.