AES Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| AES Stock | USD 14.15 -0.03 -0.21% |
This page provides Simple Moving Average reference data for The AES, calculated from historical daily prices. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 14.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.05.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of The AES price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of AES. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future AES's Simple Moving Average reference data is provided for informational and analytical purposes and does not constitute a trading recommendation. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 20th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of The AES on the next trading day is expected to be 14.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.25 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.05 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AES Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AES's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AES | AES Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for The AES uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 11.07 on the downside to about 17.26 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AES stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AES stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.0599 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0145 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2721 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0183 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.055 |
Other Forecasting Options for AES
The price movement of AES is a central concern for all potential investors, regardless of their level of expertise. AES Stock price charts can be difficult to interpret due to the noise present in the data.AES Related Equities
The following equities are related to AES within the Utilities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing AES against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AES Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators applied to AES stock help investors assess the relative momentum and resilience of the security in different market environments. By using these indicators, traders can make more informed decisions about when to buy or sell The AES.
AES Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for AES is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. By identifying the level of risk embedded in AES's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing and risk mitigation.
| Mean Deviation | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.4 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.0 | |||
| Variance | 8.98 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.79 | |||
| Semi Variance | 11.55 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.55 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AES
A coverage review of The AES helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
AES Short Properties
A short-interest review of The AES helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 712 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 2.2 B |
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