ADT Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ADT Stock | USD 8.03 0.19 2.31% |
ADT Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of ADT's share price is approaching 44. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling ADT, making its price go up or down. Momentum 44
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.247 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.225 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.8818 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.9459 | Wall Street Target Price 9.48 |
Using ADT hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ADT Inc from the perspective of ADT response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards ADT using ADT's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards ADT using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of ADT's stock price.
ADT Short Interest
An investor who is long ADT may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about ADT and may potentially protect profits, hedge ADT with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 8.3538 | Short Percent 0.0711 | Short Ratio 4.41 | Shares Short Prior Month 25.5 M | 50 Day MA 8.1182 |
ADT Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADT Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 8.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.04.ADT Inc Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to ADT's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in ADT. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding ADT can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around ADT Inc. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of ADT's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about ADT.
ADT Implied Volatility | 0.67 |
ADT's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of ADT Inc stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if ADT's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that ADT stock will not fluctuate a lot when ADT's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADT Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 8.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.04. ADT after-hype prediction price | USD 8.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ADT to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current ADT contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that ADT Inc will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0419% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With ADT trading at USD 8.03, that is roughly USD 0.003363 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating ADT's daily price movement you should consider acquiring ADT Inc options at the current volatility level of 0.67%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 ADT Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast ADT's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in ADT's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for ADT stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current ADT's open interest, investors have to compare it to ADT's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of ADT is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in ADT. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
ADT Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ADT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ADT using various technical indicators. When you analyze ADT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ADT Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADT Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 8.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ADT Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ADT's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ADT Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ADT | ADT Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
ADT Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ADT's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ADT's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 6.50 and 9.56, respectively. We have considered ADT's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ADT stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ADT stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.1983 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0103 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.084 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0103 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.04 |
Predictive Modules for ADT
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ADT Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ADT's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ADT After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of ADT at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ADT or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of ADT, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ADT Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting ADT's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on ADT's historical news coverage. ADT's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 6.50 and 9.56, respectively. We have considered ADT's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
ADT is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of ADT Inc is based on 3 months time horizon.
ADT Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ADT is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ADT backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ADT, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.11 | 1.53 | 0.01 | 0.07 | 16 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 16 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
8.03 | 8.03 | 0.00 |
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ADT Hype Timeline
On the 25th of January ADT Inc is traded for 8.03. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.07. ADT is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.11%. %. The volatility of related hype on ADT is about 234.58%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.10. About 98.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.8. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. ADT Inc last dividend was issued on the 11th of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 16 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of ADT to cross-verify your projections.ADT Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ADT's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ADT's future price movements. Getting to know how ADT's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ADT may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| REZI | Resideo Technologies | (0.93) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.79 | (4.26) | 28.49 | |
| R | Ryder System | 0.43 | 8 per month | 2.86 | 0.01 | 3.54 | (3.03) | 13.25 | |
| MSA | MSA Safety | (0.93) | 15 per month | 1.61 | 0.04 | 3.11 | (2.04) | 11.36 | |
| RYAAY | Ryanair Holdings PLC | (0.14) | 7 per month | 1.08 | 0.1 | 3.75 | (1.79) | 7.50 | |
| AL | Air Lease | (0.07) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.43) | 0.25 | (0.17) | 0.66 | |
| ACHR | Archer Aviation | 0.64 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 6.38 | (7.88) | 14.81 | |
| PONY | Pony AI American | 0.70 | 25 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 10.83 | (7.73) | 22.01 | |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc | 4.77 | 6 per month | 0.84 | 0.25 | 3.68 | (1.72) | 11.04 | |
| MIDD | Middleby Corp | 1.40 | 9 per month | 1.62 | 0.03 | 3.85 | (3.10) | 12.68 |
Other Forecasting Options for ADT
For every potential investor in ADT, whether a beginner or expert, ADT's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ADT Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ADT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ADT's price trends.ADT Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ADT stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ADT could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ADT by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ADT Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ADT stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ADT shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ADT stock market strength indicators, traders can identify ADT Inc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
ADT Risk Indicators
The analysis of ADT's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ADT's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting adt stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9921 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.5 | |||
| Variance | 2.26 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ADT
The number of cover stories for ADT depends on current market conditions and ADT's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ADT is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ADT's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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ADT Short Properties
ADT's future price predictability will typically decrease when ADT's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of ADT Inc often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential ADT's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ADT's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 963.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 204.1 M |
Additional Tools for ADT Stock Analysis
When running ADT's price analysis, check to measure ADT's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ADT is operating at the current time. Most of ADT's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ADT's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ADT's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ADT to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.