ADMA Biologics Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ADMA Stock | USD 14.32 -0.70 -4.66% |
This page documents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast output for ADMA Biologics as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADMA Biologics on the next trading day is expected to be 14.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.87.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past ADMA Biologics observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older ADMA Biologics observations. The Triple Exponential Smoothing reference information for ADMA Biologics is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ADMA Biologics on the next trading day is expected to be 14.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.37 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.22 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.87 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ADMA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ADMA Biologics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ADMA Biologics | ADMA Biologics Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates ADMA Biologics' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ADMA Biologics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ADMA Biologics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0774 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3707 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0225 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.8684 |
Other Forecasting Options for ADMA Biologics
Any investor evaluating ADMA must grapple with the challenge of interpreting ADMA Biologics' price movement accurately. ADMA Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.ADMA Biologics Related Equities
The following equities are related to ADMA Biologics within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ADMA Biologics against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ADMA Biologics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ADMA Biologics assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade ADMA Biologics.
ADMA Biologics Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for ADMA Biologics is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in ADMA Biologics' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.17 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.77 | |||
| Variance | 7.65 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ADMA Biologics
Story coverage around ADMA Biologics often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
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ADMA Biologics Short Properties
Short-interest signals around ADMA Biologics can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 244.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 87.6 M |