Adial Pharmaceuticals Stock Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ADIL Stock | USD 1.70 -0.19 -10.05% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for Adial Pharmaceuticals is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Adial Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 1.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18.When Adial Pharmaceuticals prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Adial Pharmaceuticals trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent Adial Pharmaceuticals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for Adial Pharmaceuticals presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Adial Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 1.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.17 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.07 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.18 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Adial Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Adial Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Adial Pharmaceuticals | Adial Pharmaceuticals Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Adial Pharmaceuticals for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.02 on the downside to about 7.17 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Adial Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Adial Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.025 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1725 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0466 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.1758 |
Other Forecasting Options for Adial Pharmaceuticals
Regardless of investment experience, understanding Adial Pharmaceuticals' price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in Adial. Price charts for Adial Stock are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.Adial Pharmaceuticals Related Equities
The following equities are related to Adial Pharmaceuticals within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Adial Pharmaceuticals against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Adial Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Adial Pharmaceuticals give investors insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading Adial Pharmaceuticals is likely to be most rewarding.
Adial Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Adial Pharmaceuticals' risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding Adial Pharmaceuticals'.
| Mean Deviation | 3.82 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.47 | |||
| Variance | 29.96 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Adial Pharmaceuticals
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Adial Pharmaceuticals can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Adial Pharmaceuticals Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Adial Pharmaceuticals is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 668.6 K | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 5.9 M |