Acacia Research Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ACTG Stock | USD 5.02 -0.02 -0.40% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast reference data for Acacia Research is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Acacia Research on the next trading day is expected to be 5.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.51.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Acacia Research forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Acacia Research observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. The Simple Exponential Smoothing projections for Acacia Research are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Acacia Research on the next trading day is expected to be 5.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.51 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Acacia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Acacia Research's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Acacia Research | Acacia Research Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Acacia Research focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Acacia Research stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Acacia Research stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0737 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0211 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0739 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0174 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for Acacia Research
Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of Acacia Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When Acacia Research's RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in Acacia Research's returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.Acacia Research Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Acacia Research within the Industrials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across Acacia Research's peer group.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Acacia Research Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Acacia Research enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. These tools help identify favorable windows for position changes in Acacia Research. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of Acacia Research positions across market cycles.
Acacia Research Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Acacia Research's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in Acacia Research's and determining how best to manage it. Studying Acacia Research's risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of acacia stock.
| Mean Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.41 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.13 | |||
| Variance | 9.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.99 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.37 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Acacia Research
Coverage intensity for Acacia Research matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Acacia Research Short Properties
A short-interest review of Acacia Research provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 97.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 330.1 M |