Acacia Research Stock Forward View
| ACTG Stock | USD 4.85 -0.07 -1.42% |
Acacia Research's Naive Prediction forecast reference data is generated from the equity's historical trading prices. This page presents the model output and associated accuracy measures as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Acacia Research on the next trading day is expected to be 5.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.22.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Acacia Research. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Acacia Research. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction projections for Acacia Research are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context. Acacia Research Cash Forecast
Statistical pattern recognition applied to Acacia Research's financial data reveals recurring cycles in cash generation that can be extrapolated to forecast Acacia Research's future financial performance with quantified uncertainty.
Cash | First Reported 1995-06-30 | Previous Quarter 301.8 M | Current Value 306.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 113.1 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Acacia Research on the next trading day is expected to be 5.10 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.10 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.22 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Acacia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Acacia Research's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Acacia Research | Acacia Research Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Acacia Research's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 1.86 and upside around 8.35 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Acacia Research stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Acacia Research stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.9427 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1003 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0238 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.219 |
Other Forecasting Options for Acacia Research
The price trajectory of Acacia is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. Acacia Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.Acacia Research Related Equities
The following equities are related to Acacia Research within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Acacia Research against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Acacia Research Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of Acacia Research stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in Acacia Research with greater precision.
| Accumulation Distribution | 18131.34 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | -0.47 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 4.89 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 4.87 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.07 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.07 |
Acacia Research Risk Indicators
Reviewing Acacia Research's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding Acacia Research's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 1.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.15 | |||
| Variance | 9.95 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.82 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.36 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.30 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Acacia Research
Story coverage around Acacia Research often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Acacia Research Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Acacia Research is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 97.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 330.1 M |