Arch Capital Stock Forward View - Accumulation Distribution
| ACGL Stock | USD 95.72 1.55 1.65% |
Arch Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Arch Capital's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Arch Capital's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Arch Capital fundamentals over time.
As of now, The relative strength indicator of Arch Capital's share price is at 59. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arch Capital, making its price go up or down. Momentum 59
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.391 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 2.2975 | EPS Estimate Current Year 9.4425 | EPS Estimate Next Year 9.3713 | Wall Street Target Price 107.9474 |
Using Arch Capital hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arch Capital Group from the perspective of Arch Capital response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Arch Capital using Arch Capital's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Arch using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Arch Capital's stock price.
Arch Capital Short Interest
An investor who is long Arch Capital may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Arch Capital and may potentially protect profits, hedge Arch Capital with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 91.2896 | Short Percent 0.0188 | Short Ratio 2.73 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.9 M | 50 Day MA 93.6166 |
Arch Relative Strength Index
Arch Capital Group Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Arch Capital's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Arch. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Arch can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Arch Capital Group. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Arch Capital's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Arch Capital.
Arch Capital Implied Volatility | 0.37 |
Arch Capital's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Arch Capital Group stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Arch Capital's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Arch Capital stock will not fluctuate a lot when Arch Capital's options are near their expiration.
Arch Capital after-hype prediction price | USD 95.72 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arch Capital to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Arch contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Arch Capital Group will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0231% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Arch Capital trading at USD 95.72, that is roughly USD 0.0221 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Arch Capital's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Arch Capital Group options at the current volatility level of 0.37%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Arch Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Arch Capital's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Arch Capital's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Arch Capital stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Arch Capital's open interest, investors have to compare it to Arch Capital's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Arch Capital is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Arch. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Arch Capital Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Arch price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arch using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arch charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
| Previous Accumulation Distribution | Accumulation Distribution | Trend |
| 38552.49 | 32989.61 |
| Check Arch Capital Volatility | Backtest Arch Capital | Information Ratio |
Arch Capital Trading Date Momentum
| On January 29 2026 Arch Capital Group was traded for 95.72 at the closing time. The top price for the day was 95.91 and the lowest listed price was 94.30 . The trading volume for the day was 2 M. The trading history from January 29, 2026 did not affect price variability. The overall trading delta against the current closing price is 0.90% . |
Accumulation distribution indicator can signal that a trend is either nearing completion, at a continuation, or is about to break-outs. The actual value of this indicator is of no significance. What is significant is the change in value of over time. The formula for A/D of a given trading day can be expressed as follow: ((Close - Low) - (High - Close)) / (High - Low) X Volume
| Compare Arch Capital to competition |
Other Forecasting Options for Arch Capital
For every potential investor in Arch, whether a beginner or expert, Arch Capital's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arch Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arch. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arch Capital's price trends.Arch Capital Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arch Capital stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arch Capital could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arch Capital by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arch Capital Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arch Capital stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arch Capital shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arch Capital stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Arch Capital Group entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Arch Capital Risk Indicators
The analysis of Arch Capital's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arch Capital's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arch stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8041 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8415 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.0 | |||
| Variance | 1.01 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.9485 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7081 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.90) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arch Capital
The number of cover stories for Arch Capital depends on current market conditions and Arch Capital's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arch Capital is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arch Capital's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Arch Capital Short Properties
Arch Capital's future price predictability will typically decrease when Arch Capital's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Arch Capital Group often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Arch Capital's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Arch Capital's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 381.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 9.3 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arch Capital to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Arch Capital. If investors know Arch will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Arch Capital assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.391 | Earnings Share 10.67 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.082 | Return On Assets |
Investors evaluate Arch Capital Group using market value (trading price) and book value (balance sheet equity), each telling a different story. Calculating Arch Capital's intrinsic value—the estimated true worth—helps identify when the stock trades at a discount or premium to fair value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. External factors like market trends, sector rotation, and investor psychology can cause Arch Capital's market price to deviate significantly from intrinsic value.
Understanding that Arch Capital's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Arch Capital represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Arch Capital's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.