ACG Metals Pink Sheet Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| ACGAF Stock | 21.49 1.49 7.45% |
Momentum 99
Buy Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using ACG Metals hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of ACG Metals Limited from the perspective of ACG Metals response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ACG Metals Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 21.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.45. ACG Metals after-hype prediction price | USD 22.11 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
ACG |
ACG Metals Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine ACG price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for ACG using various technical indicators. When you analyze ACG charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
ACG Metals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 31st of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of ACG Metals Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 21.49 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.25, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.45.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ACG Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ACG Metals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
ACG Metals Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
ACG Metals Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting ACG Metals' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. ACG Metals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.50 and 24.48, respectively. We have considered ACG Metals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ACG Metals pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ACG Metals pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.8999 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1162 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1242 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0067 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.45 |
Predictive Modules for ACG Metals
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ACG Metals Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as ACG Metals. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against ACG Metals' peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, ACG Metals' competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in ACG Metals Limited.ACG Metals Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
As far as predicting the price of ACG Metals at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in ACG Metals or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of ACG Metals, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
ACG Metals Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as ACG Metals is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading ACG Metals backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with ACG Metals, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.66 | 2.99 | 0.62 | 0.55 | 13 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | In about 13 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
21.49 | 22.11 | 2.89 |
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ACG Metals Hype Timeline
ACG Metals Limited is presently traded for 21.49. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.62, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.55. ACG is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.11 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is estimated to be 2.89%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.66%. The volatility of related hype on ACG Metals is about 358.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 22.04. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 13 days. Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in nation.ACG Metals Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to ACG Metals' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict ACG Metals' future price movements. Getting to know how ACG Metals' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how ACG Metals may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TCCO | Technical Communications | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| IPOOF | InPlay Oil Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.44 | 0.17 | 3.48 | (2.69) | 7.85 | |
| TNL | Travel Leisure Co | 1.67 | 12 per month | 1.42 | 0.05 | 2.77 | (2.43) | 8.90 | |
| CSGU | Consolidated Sports Media | 0.00 | 4 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| PLTK | Playtika Holding Corp | (0.03) | 9 per month | 2.25 | 0 | 3.63 | (3.21) | 17.80 | |
| ASO | Academy Sports Outdoors | 3.79 | 7 per month | 2.17 | 0.07 | 4.95 | (3.51) | 12.70 | |
| INBK | First Internet Bancorp | 0.41 | 6 per month | 2.41 | 0.05 | 4.81 | (4.74) | 15.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for ACG Metals
For every potential investor in ACG, whether a beginner or expert, ACG Metals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. ACG Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in ACG. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying ACG Metals' price trends.ACG Metals Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with ACG Metals pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of ACG Metals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing ACG Metals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ACG Metals Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how ACG Metals pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading ACG Metals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying ACG Metals pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify ACG Metals Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.07 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.49 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.49 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.74 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.49 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 99.04 |
ACG Metals Risk Indicators
The analysis of ACG Metals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in ACG Metals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting acg pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.92 | |||
| Variance | 8.53 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ACG Metals
The number of cover stories for ACG Metals depends on current market conditions and ACG Metals' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that ACG Metals is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about ACG Metals' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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