ACCESS CAPITAL Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| ACCSX Fund | USD 7.81 -0.04 -0.51% |
This page provides reference data for ACCESS CAPITAL using Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Access Capital Munity on the next trading day is expected to be 7.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.84.When Access Capital Munity prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Access Capital Munity trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ACCESS CAPITAL observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for ACCESS CAPITAL presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Access Capital Munity on the next trading day is expected to be 7.80 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.01 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0003 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.84 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ACCESS Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ACCESS CAPITAL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Access Capital Munity uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 7.59 and upside around 8.02 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ACCESS CAPITAL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ACCESS CAPITAL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.003 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0142 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.8383 |
Other Forecasting Options for ACCESS CAPITAL
For investors considering ACCESS, ACCESS CAPITAL's price movement is the most direct driver of investment returns. Noise in ACCESS Mutual Fund price charts can make identifying meaningful trends difficult without dedicated analytical tools.ACCESS CAPITAL Related Equities
The following equities are related to ACCESS CAPITAL within the Intermediate Government space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing ACCESS CAPITAL against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ACCESS CAPITAL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ACCESS CAPITAL provide investors with a view of how the mutual fund performs across different market environments. By analyzing these indicators, traders can determine the best moments to enter or exit positions in Access Capital Munity.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 7.81 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 7.81 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.02 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.39 |
ACCESS CAPITAL Risk Indicators
A structured analysis of ACCESS CAPITAL's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve the accuracy of price forecasts. Understanding the risk embedded in ACCESS CAPITAL's allows investors to decide whether to accept, reduce, or hedge their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1638 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1377 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2135 | |||
| Variance | 0.0456 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0603 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.019 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ACCESS CAPITAL
A coverage review of Access Capital Munity shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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