Arcosa Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| ACA Stock | USD 106.72 0.73 0.69% |
Arcosa Inc's Triple Exponential Smoothing reference page covers the model's projected value and error measures from recent price data. The forecast output and associated deviation metrics are shown for informational use. The model is fitted to available historical daily prices for Arcosa. This page is updated as new daily closing prices become available for Arcosa.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arcosa Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 106.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.99 and the sum of the absolute errors of 117.13.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Arcosa observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Arcosa Inc observations. All Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast figures shown for Arcosa Inc are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Arcosa Inc on the next trading day is expected to be 106.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.99 , mean absolute percentage error of 10.83 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 117.13 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arcosa Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arcosa's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Arcosa | Arcosa Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Arcosa Inc uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arcosa stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arcosa stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.3935 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.9853 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0175 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 117.1306 |
Other Forecasting Options for Arcosa
Bollinger Bands applied to Arcosa Stock price data measure how far Arcosa has deviated from its recent average relative to its own volatility. This distinction drives the choice of forecasting model applied to Arcosa's price data. On-balance volume for Arcosa Stock creates a running indicator of buying versus selling pressure in Arcosa. Price departures from the channel boundary often mean-revert, offering tactical signals for Arcosa's.Arcosa Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as Arcosa within the Industrials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Arcosa's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Arcosa Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Arcosa Inc, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of stock behavior. These indicators add context to timing decisions around Arcosa Inc positions. These indicators capture shifts in momentum that may precede significant price moves in Arcosa. These metrics provide actionable context for both entry and risk management decisions around Arcosa Inc.
| Accumulation Distribution | 6467.12 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | 0.2246 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 106.91 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 106.84 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.18 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.73 |
Arcosa Risk Indicators
Analyzing Arcosa's basic risk indicators provides investors with a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for arcosa stock. By identifying the level of risk embedded in Arcosa's investment, investors can make informed decisions about position sizing. Analyzing Arcosa's risk indicators gives investors important context for price forecasting. Understanding the risk in Arcosa's investment allows investors to make informed choices about mitigating exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.52 | |||
| Variance | 6.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 10.22 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.47 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Arcosa
Story coverage around Arcosa Inc often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Arcosa Short Properties
A short-interest review of Arcosa Inc provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 49.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 214.6 M |