Aristocrat Leisure Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| AC8 Stock | EUR 33.40 1.60 5.03% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aristocrat Leisure Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 33.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.86. Aristocrat Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Aristocrat Leisure's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 22nd of January 2026, The value of RSI of Aristocrat Leisure's share price is at 51. This suggests that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Aristocrat Leisure, making its price go up or down. Momentum 51
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Aristocrat Leisure hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Aristocrat Leisure Limited from the perspective of Aristocrat Leisure response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aristocrat Leisure Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 33.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.86. Aristocrat Leisure after-hype prediction price | EUR 33.4 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Aristocrat |
Aristocrat Leisure Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aristocrat price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aristocrat using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aristocrat charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aristocrat Leisure Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Aristocrat Leisure Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 33.40 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.40, mean absolute percentage error of 0.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.86.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aristocrat Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aristocrat Leisure's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Aristocrat Leisure Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aristocrat Leisure | Aristocrat Leisure Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Aristocrat Leisure Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Aristocrat Leisure's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Aristocrat Leisure's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 31.64 and 35.16, respectively. We have considered Aristocrat Leisure's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aristocrat Leisure stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aristocrat Leisure stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2106 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0383 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3977 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 23.86 |
Predictive Modules for Aristocrat Leisure
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aristocrat Leisure. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aristocrat Leisure After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Aristocrat Leisure at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Aristocrat Leisure or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Aristocrat Leisure, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Aristocrat Leisure Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Aristocrat Leisure's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Aristocrat Leisure's historical news coverage. Aristocrat Leisure's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.64 and 35.16, respectively. We have considered Aristocrat Leisure's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Aristocrat Leisure is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Aristocrat Leisure is based on 3 months time horizon.
Aristocrat Leisure Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aristocrat Leisure is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aristocrat Leisure backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aristocrat Leisure, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | In 5 to 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
33.40 | 33.40 | 0.00 |
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Aristocrat Leisure Hype Timeline
Aristocrat Leisure is presently traded for 33.40on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Aristocrat is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Aristocrat Leisure is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 33.40. About 37.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The book value of Aristocrat Leisure was presently reported as 9.14. The company last dividend was issued on the 30th of November 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in 5 to 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aristocrat Leisure to cross-verify your projections.Aristocrat Leisure Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Aristocrat Leisure's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Aristocrat Leisure's future price movements. Getting to know how Aristocrat Leisure's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Aristocrat Leisure may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| 4JF | Jupiter Fund Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.51 | 0.12 | 4.49 | (2.52) | 10.83 | |
| COE | Coor Service Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.13 | (0) | 3.43 | (3.14) | 9.81 | |
| I8M | Sims Metal Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.63 | 0.29 | 4.17 | (1.70) | 10.86 | |
| 4A0 | Anglesey Mining plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 16.67 | |
| RW5 | Brookfield Asset Management | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.10 | (4.18) | 12.44 | |
| M8Z | MAGNUM MINING EXP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| DDN | Darden Restaurants | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.03 | 3.52 | (2.23) | 7.10 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aristocrat Leisure
For every potential investor in Aristocrat, whether a beginner or expert, Aristocrat Leisure's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Aristocrat Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Aristocrat. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Aristocrat Leisure's price trends.Aristocrat Leisure Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Aristocrat Leisure stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Aristocrat Leisure could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Aristocrat Leisure by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aristocrat Leisure Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Aristocrat Leisure stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Aristocrat Leisure shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Aristocrat Leisure stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Aristocrat Leisure Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.05 | |||
| Day Median Price | 33.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 33.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.8 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 1.6 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 51.74 |
Aristocrat Leisure Risk Indicators
The analysis of Aristocrat Leisure's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Aristocrat Leisure's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting aristocrat stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.71 | |||
| Variance | 2.92 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aristocrat Leisure
The number of cover stories for Aristocrat Leisure depends on current market conditions and Aristocrat Leisure's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Aristocrat Leisure is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Aristocrat Leisure's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Aristocrat Stock
Aristocrat Leisure financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aristocrat Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aristocrat with respect to the benefits of owning Aristocrat Leisure security.