Advantage Oil Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| AAV Stock | CAD 11.09 0.16 1.42% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Advantage Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 11.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.12. Advantage Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Advantage Oil's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Advantage Oil's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Advantage Oil fundamentals over time.
As of today the value of relative strength index of Advantage Oil's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.37 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.475 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.094 | Wall Street Target Price 14.7727 |
Using Advantage Oil hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Advantage Oil Gas from the perspective of Advantage Oil response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Advantage Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 11.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.12. Advantage Oil after-hype prediction price | CAD 11.09 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Advantage |
Advantage Oil Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Advantage price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Advantage using various technical indicators. When you analyze Advantage charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Advantage Oil Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Advantage Oil Gas on the next trading day is expected to be 11.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.12.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Advantage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Advantage Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Advantage Oil Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Advantage Oil | Advantage Oil Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Advantage Oil Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Advantage Oil's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Advantage Oil's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.29 and 12.75, respectively. We have considered Advantage Oil's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Advantage Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Advantage Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9929 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1794 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0153 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.1244 |
Predictive Modules for Advantage Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Advantage Oil Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Advantage Oil After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Advantage Oil at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Advantage Oil or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Advantage Oil, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Advantage Oil Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Advantage Oil's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Advantage Oil's historical news coverage. Advantage Oil's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.36 and 12.82, respectively. We have considered Advantage Oil's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Advantage Oil is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Advantage Oil Gas is based on 3 months time horizon.
Advantage Oil Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Advantage Oil is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Advantage Oil backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Advantage Oil, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.73 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 7 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
11.09 | 11.09 | 0.00 |
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Advantage Oil Hype Timeline
Advantage Oil Gas is presently traded for 11.09on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.05. Advantage is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Advantage Oil is about 97.74%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 11.14. About 42.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 1.12. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Advantage Oil Gas has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.24. The entity last dividend was issued on the 25th of February 2009. The firm had 1:4 split on the 29th of May 2001. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 7 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Advantage Oil to cross-verify your projections.Advantage Oil Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Advantage Oil's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Advantage Oil's future price movements. Getting to know how Advantage Oil's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Advantage Oil may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| BIR | Birchcliff Energy | 0.01 | 5 per month | 1.42 | 0.07 | 4.13 | (2.64) | 8.79 | |
| PXT | Parex Resources | 0.01 | 2 per month | 2.35 | 0.03 | 3.27 | (3.86) | 9.39 | |
| HWX | Headwater Exploration | 0.08 | 9 per month | 1.21 | 0.29 | 4.20 | (2.39) | 9.58 | |
| VET | Vermilion Energy | (0.36) | 8 per month | 2.08 | 0.09 | 4.32 | (3.35) | 13.05 | |
| FRU | Freehold Royalties | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.88 | 0.14 | 2.18 | (1.65) | 6.50 | |
| CEU | CES Energy Solutions | 0.01 | 4 per month | 1.11 | 0.24 | 4.46 | (2.96) | 21.05 | |
| SDE | Spartan Delta Corp | 0.01 | 9 per month | 1.92 | 0.26 | 4.13 | (3.67) | 14.10 | |
| KEL | Kelt Exploration | 0.31 | 8 per month | 2.04 | 0.12 | 4.70 | (3.63) | 14.00 | |
| IPCO | International Petroleum Corp | 17.58 | 9 per month | 1.96 | 0.09 | 5.33 | (3.49) | 13.04 | |
| CJ | Cardinal Energy | 0.04 | 8 per month | 1.53 | 0.10 | 3.07 | (2.42) | 9.47 |
Other Forecasting Options for Advantage Oil
For every potential investor in Advantage, whether a beginner or expert, Advantage Oil's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Advantage Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Advantage. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Advantage Oil's price trends.Advantage Oil Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Advantage Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Advantage Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Advantage Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Advantage Oil Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Advantage Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Advantage Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Advantage Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Advantage Oil Gas entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 27470.72 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.40) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.26 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.25) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.16) |
Advantage Oil Risk Indicators
The analysis of Advantage Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Advantage Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting advantage stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.81 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.69 | |||
| Variance | 2.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.28 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.31) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Advantage Oil
The number of cover stories for Advantage Oil depends on current market conditions and Advantage Oil's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Advantage Oil is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Advantage Oil's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Advantage Oil Short Properties
Advantage Oil's future price predictability will typically decrease when Advantage Oil's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Advantage Oil Gas often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Advantage Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Advantage Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 166.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20.1 M |
Other Information on Investing in Advantage Stock
Advantage Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Advantage Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Advantage with respect to the benefits of owning Advantage Oil security.