ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID Mutual Fund Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| AATIX Fund | USD 17.83 0.10 0.56% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecast shown here for ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Double Exponential Smoothing output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ancorathelen Small Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 17.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.39.When Ancorathelen Small Mid Cap prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any Ancorathelen Small Mid Cap trend in the prices. So in double exponential smoothing past observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Double Exponential Smoothing reference page for ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Ancorathelen Small Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 17.73 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.39 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict ANCORA/THELEN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID | ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Ancorathelen Small Mid Cap focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 16.56 and upside around 18.89 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0034 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1762 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0094 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.3944 |
Other Forecasting Options for ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID
The distribution of ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in ANCORA/THELEN.ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID Related Equities
These stocks within the Small Value space are often compared to ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's peer group. When ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Ancorathelen Small Mid Cap. Market strength analysis for Ancorathelen Small Mid Cap works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.01 | |||
| Day Median Price | 17.83 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 17.83 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.1 |
ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID Risk Indicators
A thorough review of ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8464 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Variance | 1.24 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for ANCORA/THELEN SMALL-MID
Story coverage around Ancorathelen Small Mid Cap often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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