AUREA SA Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| 94P Stock | 5.72 -0.22 -3.70% |
AUREA SA INH's Simple Moving Average reference page summarizes the forecasted price and model accuracy metrics derived from daily trading data. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AUREA SA INH on the next trading day is expected to be 5.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51.The simple moving average model is conceptually a linear regression of the current value of AUREA SA INH price series against current and previous (unobserved) value of AUREA SA. In time series analysis, the simple moving-average model is a very common approach for modeling univariate price series models including forecasting prices into the future This Simple Moving Average forecast data for AUREA SA INH is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 22nd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of AUREA SA INH on the next trading day is expected to be 5.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.09 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.51 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AUREA Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AUREA SA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AUREA SA | AUREA SA Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for AUREA SA INH uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 3.53 on the downside to about 7.91 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AUREA SA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AUREA SA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 110.0939 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0056 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0934 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0161 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 5.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for AUREA SA
The movement of AUREA price is the central consideration for investors deciding whether to enter or hold a position. Noise in AUREA Stock price charts can make it difficult to distinguish meaningful trends from random fluctuations.AUREA SA Related Equities
The following equities are related to AUREA SA within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing AUREA SA against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AUREA SA Market Strength Events
Investors use market strength indicators for AUREA SA to evaluate how the stock performs relative to broader market trends. These indicators support more precise timing of AUREA SA INH positions, helping investors maximize return and minimize poorly-timed trades.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 5.72 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 5.72 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.11 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.22 |
AUREA SA Risk Indicators
A careful analysis of AUREA SA's basic risk indicators provides context for understanding the risk environment surrounding aurea stock. This understanding is an essential input for forecasting AUREA SA's future price and for deciding how to manage the associated investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 1.73 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.81 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AUREA SA
Story coverage around AUREA SA INH often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Financial ratios for AUREA SA show relationships between important financial metrics. They provide context across profit, cash flow, and overall value.