China Mobile Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

600941 Stock   95.38  0.87  0.90%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Mobile Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 95.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.83. China Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast China Mobile stock prices and determine the direction of China Mobile Limited's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of China Mobile's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 24th of January 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of China Mobile's share price is below 20 . This suggests that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of China Mobile's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with China Mobile Limited, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting China Mobile's stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.011
Wall Street Target Price
113.27
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.025
Using China Mobile hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of China Mobile Limited from the perspective of China Mobile response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Mobile Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 95.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.83.

China Mobile after-hype prediction price

    
  CNY 95.4  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Mobile to cross-verify your projections.

China Mobile Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine China price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for China using various technical indicators. When you analyze China charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
China Mobile simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for China Mobile Limited are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as China Mobile Limited prices get older.

China Mobile Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of China Mobile Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 95.38 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.83.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict China Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that China Mobile's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

China Mobile Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest China MobileChina Mobile Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

China Mobile Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting China Mobile's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. China Mobile's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 94.76 and 96.00, respectively. We have considered China Mobile's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
95.38
95.38
Expected Value
96.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of China Mobile stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent China Mobile stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.284
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.1736
MADMean absolute deviation0.5218
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0051
SAESum of the absolute errors31.83
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting China Mobile Limited forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent China Mobile observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for China Mobile

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as China Mobile Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
94.7895.4096.02
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
87.3087.92104.92
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
95.15101.02106.88
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as China Mobile. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against China Mobile's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, China Mobile's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in China Mobile Limited.

China Mobile After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of China Mobile at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in China Mobile or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of China Mobile, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

China Mobile Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting China Mobile's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on China Mobile's historical news coverage. China Mobile's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 94.78 and 96.02, respectively. We have considered China Mobile's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
95.38
95.40
After-hype Price
96.02
Upside
China Mobile is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of China Mobile Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.

China Mobile Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as China Mobile is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading China Mobile backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with China Mobile, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.18 
0.62
  0.02 
  0.02 
7 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
In about 7 days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
95.38
95.40
0.02 
620.00  
Notes

China Mobile Hype Timeline

China Mobile Limited is presently traded for 95.38on Shanghai Stock Exchange of China. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. China is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 95.4 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is forecasted to be 0.02%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.18%. The volatility of related hype on China Mobile is about 563.64%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 95.36. The company reported the revenue of 1.04 T. Net Income was 178.39 B with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 305.47 B. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 7 days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of China Mobile to cross-verify your projections.

China Mobile Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to China Mobile's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict China Mobile's future price movements. Getting to know how China Mobile's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how China Mobile may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
601398Industrial and Commercial(0.08)7 per month 0.00 (0.18) 1.38 (1.98) 5.43 
601857PetroChina Co Ltd(0.1)2 per month 1.35  0.05  2.23 (2.49) 8.08 
601658Postal Savings Bank 0.07 8 per month 0.00 (0.21) 1.55 (2.12) 7.42 
601318Ping An Insurance(1.09)6 per month 1.25  0.04  2.71 (1.96) 10.06 
601628China Life Insurance(0.23)10 per month 1.45 (0) 3.22 (2.33) 8.93 
601939China Construction Bank 0.12 6 per month 0.00 (0.18) 2.25 (1.70) 5.87 
600941China Mobile Limited 0.1 7 per month 0.00 (0.39) 0.78 (1.16) 3.05 
600938CNOOC Limited 0.20 5 per month 1.43  0.09  3.29 (2.73) 8.86 
600030CITIC Securities Co 0.02 7 per month 0.00 (0.13) 2.16 (2.05) 6.27 

Other Forecasting Options for China Mobile

For every potential investor in China, whether a beginner or expert, China Mobile's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. China Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in China. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying China Mobile's price trends.

China Mobile Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with China Mobile stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of China Mobile could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing China Mobile by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

China Mobile Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how China Mobile stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading China Mobile shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying China Mobile stock market strength indicators, traders can identify China Mobile Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

China Mobile Risk Indicators

The analysis of China Mobile's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in China Mobile's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting china stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for China Mobile

The number of cover stories for China Mobile depends on current market conditions and China Mobile's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that China Mobile is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about China Mobile's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

China Mobile Short Properties

China Mobile's future price predictability will typically decrease when China Mobile's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of China Mobile Limited often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential China Mobile's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. China Mobile's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding21.5 B
Cash And Short Term Investments404.1 B

Other Information on Investing in China Stock

China Mobile financial ratios help investors to determine whether China Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in China with respect to the benefits of owning China Mobile security.