Shenzhen Longsys Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

301308 Stock   368.45  7.95  2.21%   
Shenzhen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Shenzhen Longsys stock prices and determine the direction of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Shenzhen Longsys' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Shenzhen Longsys' stock price is about 64. This suggests that the stock is rather overbought by investors at the present time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Shenzhen, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 64

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Shenzhen Longsys' future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Shenzhen Longsys Electronics, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed. Below are the key fundamental drivers impacting Shenzhen Longsys' stock price prediction:
Quarterly Earnings Growth
0.025
EPS Estimate Current Year
3.67
EPS Estimate Next Year
10.47
Wall Street Target Price
250.6667
Quarterly Revenue Growth
0.546
Using Shenzhen Longsys hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics from the perspective of Shenzhen Longsys response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 368.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 621.30.

Shenzhen Longsys after-hype prediction price

    
  CNY 360.37  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shenzhen Longsys to cross-verify your projections.

Shenzhen Longsys Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Shenzhen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Shenzhen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Shenzhen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Shenzhen Longsys simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Shenzhen Longsys Electronics are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Shenzhen Longsys Ele prices get older.

Shenzhen Longsys Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Shenzhen Longsys Electronics on the next trading day is expected to be 368.45 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.35, mean absolute percentage error of 195.19, and the sum of the absolute errors of 621.30.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Shenzhen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Shenzhen Longsys' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Shenzhen Longsys Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Shenzhen Longsys  Shenzhen Longsys Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Shenzhen Longsys Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Shenzhen Longsys' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Shenzhen Longsys' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 363.37 and 373.53, respectively. We have considered Shenzhen Longsys' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
368.45
363.37
Downside
368.45
Expected Value
373.53
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Shenzhen Longsys stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Shenzhen Longsys stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.5466
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -1.7857
MADMean absolute deviation10.355
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0365
SAESum of the absolute errors621.3
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Shenzhen Longsys Electronics forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Shenzhen Longsys observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Shenzhen Longsys

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Shenzhen Longsys Ele. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
355.29360.37365.45
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
319.37324.45396.55
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
212.25295.04377.83
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
0.920.920.92
Details

Shenzhen Longsys After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Shenzhen Longsys at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Shenzhen Longsys or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Shenzhen Longsys, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Shenzhen Longsys Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Shenzhen Longsys' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Shenzhen Longsys' historical news coverage. Shenzhen Longsys' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 355.29 and 365.45, respectively. We have considered Shenzhen Longsys' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
368.45
355.29
Downside
360.37
After-hype Price
365.45
Upside
Shenzhen Longsys is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Shenzhen Longsys Ele is based on 3 months time horizon.

Shenzhen Longsys Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Shenzhen Longsys is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Shenzhen Longsys backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Shenzhen Longsys, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.57 
5.08
  23.14 
  0.13 
2 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
In a few days
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
368.45
360.37
0.04 
12.51  
Notes

Shenzhen Longsys Hype Timeline

Shenzhen Longsys Ele is presently traded for 368.45on Shenzhen Stock Exchange of China. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 23.14, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.13. Shenzhen is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 360.37. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is about 12.51%. The price decline on the next news is expected to be -0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at 0.57%. The volatility of related hype on Shenzhen Longsys is about 2168.29%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 368.32. About 65.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees . The company last dividend was issued on the 25th of October 2024. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in a few days.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Shenzhen Longsys to cross-verify your projections.

Shenzhen Longsys Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Shenzhen Longsys' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Shenzhen Longsys' future price movements. Getting to know how Shenzhen Longsys' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Shenzhen Longsys may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
300339Jiangsu Hoperun Software(0.23)1 per month 0.00 (0.08) 3.12 (4.02) 17.55 
301321Highbroad Advanced Material(0.56)1 per month 1.91  0.11  6.29 (3.62) 24.57 
300548Broadex Technologies Co 0.02 1 per month 3.52  0.11  11.36 (7.21) 22.38 
002307Xinjiang Beixin RoadBridge(0.07)1 per month 2.96 (0.02) 9.92 (5.42) 17.12 
300103XiAn Dagang Road(0.12)2 per month 2.00  0  3.45 (3.59) 10.48 
688058Beijing Baolande Software(0.68)1 per month 0.00 (0.06) 3.56 (2.78) 10.20 
600996Guizhou BroadcastingTV Info 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.03) 6.83 (4.18) 14.99 

Other Forecasting Options for Shenzhen Longsys

For every potential investor in Shenzhen, whether a beginner or expert, Shenzhen Longsys' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Shenzhen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Shenzhen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Shenzhen Longsys' price trends.

Shenzhen Longsys Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Shenzhen Longsys stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Shenzhen Longsys could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Shenzhen Longsys by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Shenzhen Longsys Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Shenzhen Longsys stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Shenzhen Longsys shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Shenzhen Longsys stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Shenzhen Longsys Electronics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Shenzhen Longsys Risk Indicators

The analysis of Shenzhen Longsys' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Shenzhen Longsys' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting shenzhen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Shenzhen Longsys

The number of cover stories for Shenzhen Longsys depends on current market conditions and Shenzhen Longsys' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Shenzhen Longsys is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Shenzhen Longsys' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Shenzhen Stock

Shenzhen Longsys financial ratios help investors to determine whether Shenzhen Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Shenzhen with respect to the benefits of owning Shenzhen Longsys security.