MACOM Technology Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing

1MA Stock  EUR 210.00  6.00  2.94%   
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for MACOM Technology Solutions. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MACOM Technology Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 212.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 300.00.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past MACOM Technology observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older MACOM Technology Solutions observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for MACOM Technology Solutions is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
Triple exponential smoothing for MACOM Technology - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When MACOM Technology prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in MACOM Technology price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of MACOM Technology.

Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MACOM Technology Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 212.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 54.61 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 300.00 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MACOM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MACOM Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for MACOM Technology Solutions uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 207.77 and upside around 216.23 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
210.00
207.77
Downside
212.00
Expected Value
216.23
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MACOM Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MACOM Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.9492
MADMean absolute deviation5.0847
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0272
SAESum of the absolute errors300.0
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past MACOM Technology observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older MACOM Technology Solutions observations.

Other Forecasting Options for MACOM Technology

MACOM Technology's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in MACOM often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of MACOM Stock data examines overnight jumps between MACOM Technology's closing and opening prices.

MACOM Technology Related Equities

These related stocks within the Information Technology space give benchmarks for judging MACOM Technology's results, margins, and growth trend. Looking at MACOM Technology's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. When MACOM Technology breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

MACOM Technology Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how MACOM Technology stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading MACOM Technology Solutions. These indicators can identify periods when trading MACOM Technology Solutions may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.

MACOM Technology Risk Indicators

The analysis of MACOM Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding MACOM Technology's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of MACOM Technology's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for MACOM Technology

Coverage intensity for MACOM Technology Solutions matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

More Resources for MACOM Stock Analysis

Initial analysis of MACOM Technology centers on its financial statements and observed trends. These values are derived from MACOM Technology's published financial data.
The Historical Fundamental Analysis of MACOM Technology dataset supports cross-verification of projections for MACOM Technology.
MACOM Technology currently shows ROE of 12.95%, market cap of 15.83 Billion. MACOM Technology analysis should be paired with portfolio risk and diversification tools before adjusting allocations. Within the Technology space, MACOM Technology peer comparison and risk tools below help frame relative strengths and weaknesses. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Understanding MACOM Technology involves recognizing that value and price can reflect different time horizons. For MACOM Technology, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 12.07, a profit margin of 15.88%, ROE of 12.95%, and revenue of 967.26 M.