MACOM Technology Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| 1MA Stock | EUR 210.00 6.00 2.94% |
This reference page presents Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for MACOM Technology Solutions. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MACOM Technology Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 212.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 300.00.As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past MACOM Technology observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older MACOM Technology Solutions observations. This Triple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for MACOM Technology Solutions is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information. Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of MACOM Technology Solutions on the next trading day is expected to be 212.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 5.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 54.61 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 300.00 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MACOM Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MACOM Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MACOM Technology | MACOM Technology Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for MACOM Technology Solutions uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. At the moment, the model places downside around 207.77 and upside around 216.23 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MACOM Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MACOM Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.9492 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 5.0847 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0272 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 300.0 |
Other Forecasting Options for MACOM Technology
MACOM Technology's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in MACOM often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of MACOM Stock data examines overnight jumps between MACOM Technology's closing and opening prices.MACOM Technology Related Equities
These related stocks within the Information Technology space give benchmarks for judging MACOM Technology's results, margins, and growth trend. Looking at MACOM Technology's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. When MACOM Technology breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MACOM Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how MACOM Technology stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading MACOM Technology Solutions. These indicators can identify periods when trading MACOM Technology Solutions may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.
MACOM Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of MACOM Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding MACOM Technology's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of MACOM Technology's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
| Mean Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.55 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.11 | |||
| Variance | 16.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 10.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.48 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.30 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MACOM Technology
Coverage intensity for MACOM Technology Solutions matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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More Resources for MACOM Stock Analysis
Initial analysis of MACOM Technology centers on its financial statements and observed trends. These values are derived from MACOM Technology's published financial data.The Historical Fundamental Analysis of MACOM Technology dataset supports cross-verification of projections for MACOM Technology. MACOM Technology currently shows ROE of 12.95%, market cap of 15.83 Billion. MACOM Technology analysis should be paired with portfolio risk and diversification tools before adjusting allocations. Within the Technology space, MACOM Technology peer comparison and risk tools below help frame relative strengths and weaknesses. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..