PennantPark Investment Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing

12P Stock  EUR 3.99  0.13  3.37%   
This reference page presents Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for PennantPark Investment. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PennantPark Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 3.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.03.This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PennantPark Investment forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PennantPark Investment observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations. This Simple Exponential Smoothing forecast data for PennantPark Investment is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
PennantPark Investment simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for PennantPark Investment are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as PennantPark Investment prices get older.

Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of PennantPark Investment on the next trading day is expected to be 3.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 5.03 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PennantPark Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that PennantPark Investment's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for PennantPark Investment uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Market Value
3.99
3.98
Expected Value
6.50
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of PennantPark Investment stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent PennantPark Investment stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria111.8431
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.018
MADMean absolute deviation0.0839
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0192
SAESum of the absolute errors5.0343
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting PennantPark Investment forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent PennantPark Investment observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Other Forecasting Options for PennantPark Investment

PennantPark Investment's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in PennantPark often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of PennantPark Stock data examines overnight jumps between PennantPark Investment's closing and opening prices.

PennantPark Investment Related Equities

These firms work in a similar space as PennantPark Investment within the Materials space and serve as useful points for comparison. Profit comparisons show whether PennantPark Investment earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

PennantPark Investment Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how PennantPark Investment stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading PennantPark Investment. These indicators can identify periods when trading PennantPark Investment may offer more favorable risk-reward conditions.

PennantPark Investment Risk Indicators

The analysis of PennantPark Investment's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding PennantPark Investment's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure. The analysis of PennantPark Investment's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for managing investment risk.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for PennantPark Investment

Story coverage around PennantPark Investment often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

PennantPark Investment Short Properties

A short-interest review of PennantPark Investment provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding65.3 M
Dividend Yield0.2486

More Resources for PennantPark Stock Analysis

A broader look at PennantPark Investment comes from its financial reports and historical data. The data captures PennantPark Investment's financial activity across reporting cycles.
Projections for PennantPark Investment can be cross-referenced against Historical Fundamental Analysis of PennantPark Investment data.
For information on how to trade PennantPark Stock refer to our How to Invest in PennantPark Investment guide. It explains the process for buying and trading PennantPark Stock effectively.
PennantPark Investment currently shows P/E of 9.21, market cap of 402.53 Million. PennantPark Investment analysis should be paired with portfolio risk and diversification tools before adjusting allocations. The supplemental views below help investors decide how PennantPark Investment complements or overlaps with existing portfolio holdings. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.
PennantPark Investment's value is shaped by fundamental inputs, whereas price is shaped by supply and demand dynamics. For PennantPark Investment, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 9.21, and a P/B ratio of 0.66.