Correlation Between Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold

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Can any of the company-specific risk be diversified away by investing in both Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold at the same time? Although using a correlation coefficient on its own may not help to predict future stock returns, this module helps to understand the diversifiable risk of combining Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold into the same portfolio, which is an essential part of the fundamental portfolio management process.
By analyzing existing cross correlation between Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and SPDR Gold Shares, you can compare the effects of market volatilities on Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold and check how they will diversify away market risk if combined in the same portfolio for a given time horizon. You can also utilize pair trading strategies of matching a long position in Grayscale Bitcoin with a short position of SPDR Gold. Check out your portfolio center. Please also check ongoing floating volatility patterns of Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold.

Diversification Opportunities for Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold

-0.45
  Correlation Coefficient

Very good diversification

The 3 months correlation between Grayscale and SPDR is -0.45. Overlapping area represents the amount of risk that can be diversified away by holding Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and SPDR Gold Shares in the same portfolio, assuming nothing else is changed. The correlation between historical prices or returns on SPDR Gold Shares and Grayscale Bitcoin is a relative statistical measure of the degree to which these equity instruments tend to move together. The correlation coefficient measures the extent to which returns on Grayscale Bitcoin Trust are associated (or correlated) with SPDR Gold. Values of the correlation coefficient range from -1 to +1, where. The correlation of zero (0) is possible when the price movement of SPDR Gold Shares has no effect on the direction of Grayscale Bitcoin i.e., Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold go up and down completely randomly.

Pair Corralation between Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold

Given the investment horizon of 90 days Grayscale Bitcoin Trust is expected to under-perform the SPDR Gold. In addition to that, Grayscale Bitcoin is 1.83 times more volatile than SPDR Gold Shares. It trades about -0.14 of its total potential returns per unit of risk. SPDR Gold Shares is currently generating about 0.2 per unit of volatility. If you would invest  32,559  in SPDR Gold Shares on September 2, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  6,416  from holding SPDR Gold Shares or generate 19.71% return on investment over 90 days.
Time Period3 Months [change]
DirectionMoves Against 
StrengthVery Weak
Accuracy100.0%
ValuesDaily Returns

Grayscale Bitcoin Trust  vs.  SPDR Gold Shares

 Performance 
       Timeline  
Grayscale Bitcoin Trust 

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Weakest

 
Weak
 
Strong
Over the last 90 days Grayscale Bitcoin Trust has generated negative risk-adjusted returns adding no value to investors with long positions. In spite of unsteady performance in the last few months, the Etf's basic indicators remain rather sound which may send shares a bit higher in January 2026. The latest tumult may also be a sign of longer-term up-swing for the fund shareholders.
SPDR Gold Shares 

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Good

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in SPDR Gold Shares are ranked lower than 15 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of rather weak essential indicators, SPDR Gold exhibited solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point.

Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold Volatility Contrast

   Predicted Return Density   
       Returns  

Pair Trading with Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold

The main advantage of trading using opposite Grayscale Bitcoin and SPDR Gold positions is that it hedges away some unsystematic risk. Because of two separate transactions, even if Grayscale Bitcoin position performs unexpectedly, SPDR Gold can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in SPDR Gold will offset losses from the drop in SPDR Gold's long position.
The idea behind Grayscale Bitcoin Trust and SPDR Gold Shares pairs trading is to make the combined position market-neutral, meaning the overall market's direction will not affect its win or loss (or potential downside or upside). This can be achieved by designing a pairs trade with two highly correlated stocks or equities that operate in a similar space or sector, making it possible to obtain profits through simple and relatively low-risk investment.
Check out your portfolio center.
Note that this page's information should be used as a complementary analysis to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Equity Valuation module to check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data.

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