FIDSON HEALTHCARE (Nigeria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 46.49
| FIDSON Stock | 43.00 0.00 0.00% |
FIDSON |
FIDSON HEALTHCARE Target Price Odds to finish over 46.49
The tendency of FIDSON Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 46.49 or more in 90 days |
| 43.00 | 90 days | 46.49 | about 15.48 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FIDSON HEALTHCARE to move over 46.49 or more in 90 days from now is about 15.48 (This FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC probability density function shows the probability of FIDSON Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC price to stay between its current price of 43.00 and 46.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 26.2 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC has a beta of -0.14. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding FIDSON HEALTHCARE are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC has an alpha of 0.7061, implying that it can generate a 0.71 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). FIDSON HEALTHCARE Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for FIDSON HEALTHCARE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.FIDSON HEALTHCARE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FIDSON HEALTHCARE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FIDSON HEALTHCARE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FIDSON HEALTHCARE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.71 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
FIDSON HEALTHCARE Technical Analysis
FIDSON HEALTHCARE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FIDSON Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FIDSON HEALTHCARE PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing FIDSON Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FIDSON HEALTHCARE Predictive Forecast Models
FIDSON HEALTHCARE's time-series forecasting models is one of many FIDSON HEALTHCARE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FIDSON HEALTHCARE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards FIDSON HEALTHCARE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, FIDSON HEALTHCARE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from FIDSON HEALTHCARE options trading.