INVESTEC EMERGING Mutual Fund Forward View
| ZEMIX Fund | USD 13.11 0.05 0.38% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for INVESTEC EMERGING is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Naive Prediction output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Investec Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 13.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.13.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Investec Emerging Markets. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict INVESTEC EMERGING. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for INVESTEC EMERGING presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Investec Emerging Markets on the next trading day is expected to be 13.25 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.13 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict INVESTEC Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that INVESTEC EMERGING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest INVESTEC EMERGING | INVESTEC EMERGING Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Investec Emerging Markets uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. No forecasting approach has been shown to beat all others over time. Investors should treat any model output as a guide, not a guarantee.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of INVESTEC EMERGING mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent INVESTEC EMERGING mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9261 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1634 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0119 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.1296 |
Other Forecasting Options for INVESTEC EMERGING
The distribution of INVESTEC EMERGING's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in INVESTEC EMERGING's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of INVESTEC EMERGING's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in INVESTEC.INVESTEC EMERGING Related Equities
Sizing up INVESTEC EMERGING against these stocks within the Diversified Emerging Mkts space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Profit comparisons show whether INVESTEC EMERGING earns above or below average returns next to its peers. Sector-wide trends across this peer group can help split company-level factors from broader forces.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
INVESTEC EMERGING Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for INVESTEC EMERGING give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Investec Emerging Markets. Market strength analysis for Investec Emerging Markets works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For INVESTEC EMERGING, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 13.11 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.11 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.025 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.78 |
INVESTEC EMERGING Risk Indicators
A thorough review of INVESTEC EMERGING's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in INVESTEC EMERGING's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of INVESTEC EMERGING's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in INVESTEC EMERGING's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.18 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.06 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Variance | 6.96 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.75 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.33 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for INVESTEC EMERGING
Coverage intensity for Investec Emerging Markets matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.