Topaz Energy Corp Stock Forward View

TPZ Stock  CAD 30.98  -0.07  -0.23%   
This reference page presents Naive Prediction forecast data for Topaz Energy Corp. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Topaz Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 29.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.32.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Topaz Energy Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Topaz Energy Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction forecast data for Topaz Energy Corp is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.
A naive forecasting model for Topaz Energy Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Topaz Energy Corp value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Topaz Energy Corp on the next trading day is expected to be 29.99 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.22 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 24.32 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Topaz Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Topaz Energy Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Topaz Energy Corp  Topaz Energy Corp Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Topaz Energy Corp focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 28.71 on the downside to about 31.27 on the upside.
Market Value
30.98
29.99
Expected Value
31.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Topaz Energy Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Topaz Energy Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.4349
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3922
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0135
SAESum of the absolute errors24.3165
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Topaz Energy Corp. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Topaz Energy Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for Topaz Energy Corp

Topaz Energy Corp's daily price returns can be decomposed into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Topaz often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration.

Topaz Energy Corp Related Equities

These firms work in a similar space as Topaz Energy Corp within the Energy space and serve as useful points for comparison. Checking Topaz Energy Corp against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Topaz Energy Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors evaluate how Topaz Energy Corp stock reacts to evolving market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading Topaz Energy Corp.

Topaz Energy Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Topaz Energy Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding Topaz Energy Corp's allows investors to make informed decisions about their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Topaz Energy Corp

Story coverage around Topaz Energy Corp often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

Topaz Energy Corp Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Topaz Energy Corp is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. The practical goal is to identify when the balance between long and short participation may be changing the quality of the setup.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding154.4 M
Cash And Short Term Investments580 K

More Resources for Topaz Stock Analysis

Other Information on Investing in Topaz Stock

Financial ratios represent how different financial values are linked for Topaz Energy Corp. The metrics reflect the most recent disclosures available and are intended for reference only.