STMicroelectronics Stock Forward View

STM Stock  USD 30.86  -1.56  -4.81%   
The Naive Prediction forecast reference data for STMicroelectronics NV ADR is based on the equity's recent trading history. Forecast values and accuracy indicators are summarized on this page for reference. This reference information is provided for analytical context.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of STMicroelectronics NV ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 31.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81 and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.37.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of STMicroelectronics NV ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict STMicroelectronics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction projections for STMicroelectronics NV ADR are reference data based on historical daily prices and are provided as informational context.
A naive forecasting model for STMicroelectronics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of STMicroelectronics NV ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of STMicroelectronics NV ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 31.93 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.81 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 49.37 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict STMicroelectronics Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that STMicroelectronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest STMicroelectronics  STMicroelectronics Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates STMicroelectronics' predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. At the moment, the model places downside around 28.81 and upside around 35.04 for the forecasting period.
Market Value
30.86
31.93
Expected Value
35.04
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of STMicroelectronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent STMicroelectronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.1899
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.8093
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0266
SAESum of the absolute errors49.3671
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of STMicroelectronics NV ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict STMicroelectronics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for STMicroelectronics

Volatility clustering is a well-documented feature of STMicroelectronics Stock price data where periods of large moves tend to follow other large moves. When STMicroelectronics' RSI reaches extreme levels, it often precedes a short-term price correction or consolidation. Seasonal patterns in STMicroelectronics' returns can persist when driven by structural factors like earnings calendars or index rebalancing.

STMicroelectronics Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Information Technology space can help frame STMicroelectronics' pricing and running costs in context. Key comparison metrics include price-to-earnings, profit margin, and revenue growth across STMicroelectronics' peer group. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

STMicroelectronics Market Strength Events

Analyzing market strength indicators for STMicroelectronics enables investors to understand relative stock momentum. Investors use these tools to determine the best times to initiate or close positions in STMicroelectronics NV ADR. Market strength indicators support more precise timing of STMicroelectronics NV ADR positions across market cycles.

STMicroelectronics Risk Indicators

Identifying and analyzing STMicroelectronics' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process involves measuring the level of investment risk in STMicroelectronics' and determining how best to manage it. Studying STMicroelectronics' risk indicators helps investors understand the risk level of stmicroelectronics stock.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for STMicroelectronics

The amount of media and story coverage tied to STMicroelectronics NV ADR can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.

STMicroelectronics Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to STMicroelectronics NV ADR matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding923.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.9 B

More Resources for STMicroelectronics Stock Analysis

Understanding STMicroelectronics NV ADR starts with its core financial statements, trend data, and ratio analysis. Below are reports that help frame STMicroelectronics NV ADR Stock in context: