Sampp Smallcap Mutual Fund Forward View
| SMCIX Fund | USD 21.41 0.44 2.10% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for Sampp Smallcap is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Naive Prediction output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sampp Smallcap Index on the next trading day is expected to be 21.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.32.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Sampp Smallcap Index. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Sampp Smallcap. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for Sampp Smallcap presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Sampp Smallcap Index on the next trading day is expected to be 21.18 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.32 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sampp Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sampp Smallcap's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Sampp Smallcap | Sampp Smallcap Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Sampp Smallcap's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 20.10 on the downside to about 22.26 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sampp Smallcap mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sampp Smallcap mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.2852 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.202 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0092 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.3191 |
Other Forecasting Options for Sampp Smallcap
The distribution of Sampp Smallcap's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Sampp Smallcap's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Sampp Smallcap's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Sampp.Sampp Smallcap Related Equities
Sampp Smallcap's market space within the Small Blend space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Investors should look for peers that steadily beat or lag Sampp Smallcap across many periods.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Sampp Smallcap Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Sampp Smallcap give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Sampp Smallcap Index. Market strength analysis for Sampp Smallcap Index works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Sampp Smallcap, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.02 | |||
| Day Median Price | 21.41 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 21.41 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.22 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.44 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 45.09 |
Sampp Smallcap Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Sampp Smallcap's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Sampp Smallcap's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Sampp Smallcap's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Sampp Smallcap's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8039 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.05 | |||
| Variance | 1.1 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Sampp Smallcap
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Sampp Smallcap Index can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.