Grupo Simec Stock Forward View
| SIM Stock | USD 30.80 0.00 0.00% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for Grupo Simec is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Naive Prediction output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grupo Simec SAB on the next trading day is expected to be 31.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.67.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Grupo Simec SAB. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Grupo Simec. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for Grupo Simec presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Grupo Simec SAB on the next trading day is expected to be 31.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.49 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.37 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 29.67 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Grupo Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Grupo Simec's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Grupo Simec | Grupo Simec Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Grupo Simec SAB focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 29.57 on the downside to about 33.52 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Grupo Simec stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Grupo Simec stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.129 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4865 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0159 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 29.6749 |
Other Forecasting Options for Grupo Simec
The distribution of Grupo Simec's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Grupo Simec's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of Grupo Simec's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in Grupo.Grupo Simec Related Equities
Checking Grupo Simec against related firms within the Materials space helps investors see where the stock stands among peers. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Grupo Simec's relative financial strength. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Grupo Simec Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Grupo Simec give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Grupo Simec SAB. Market strength analysis for Grupo Simec SAB works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For Grupo Simec, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
Grupo Simec Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Grupo Simec's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Grupo Simec's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of Grupo Simec's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Grupo Simec's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.77 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Variance | 7.57 | |||
| Downside Variance | 31.02 | |||
| Semi Variance | 3.12 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -4.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Grupo Simec
Story coverage around Grupo Simec SAB often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Grupo Simec Short Properties
A short-interest review of Grupo Simec SAB provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 165.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 28.6 B |