Southern First Stock Forward View
| SFST Stock | USD 51.94 0.13 0.25% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for Southern First is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 53.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.34.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Southern First Bancshares. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Southern First. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for Southern First presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Southern First Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 53.46 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.96 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.59 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 58.34 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Southern Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Southern First's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Southern First | Southern First Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Southern First's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 51.27 on the downside to about 55.66 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Southern First stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Southern First stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.5741 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9563 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0171 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 58.3354 |
Other Forecasting Options for Southern First
The distribution of Southern First's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Southern First's chart that simple price charts miss.Southern First Related Equities
These related stocks within the Financials space give benchmarks for judging Southern First's results, margins, and growth trend. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge Southern First's relative financial strength. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. Peer review is one of the most widely used methods in stock research and portfolio building.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Southern First Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Southern First give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Southern First Bancshares.
Southern First Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Southern First's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Southern First's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 1.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.19 | |||
| Variance | 4.82 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Southern First
The amount of media and story coverage tied to Southern First Bancshares can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
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Southern First Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Southern First Bancshares matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 155.6 M |
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