VERSATILE BOND Mutual Fund Forward View
| PRVBX Fund | USD 64.88 -0.17 -0.26% |
VERSATILE BOND's Naive Prediction reference data is generated by applying the model to available daily closing prices. The projected values and error metrics are presented below as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Versatile Bond Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 64.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.80.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Versatile Bond Portfolio. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict VERSATILE BOND. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction reference values for VERSATILE BOND are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 19th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Versatile Bond Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 64.79 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.0031 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.80 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict VERSATILE Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that VERSATILE BOND's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest VERSATILE BOND | VERSATILE BOND Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Versatile Bond Portfolio focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of VERSATILE BOND mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent VERSATILE BOND mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.3181 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0459 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 7.0E-4 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 2.8009 |
Other Forecasting Options for VERSATILE BOND
For investors of all experience levels considering VERSATILE, understanding VERSATILE BOND's price movement is fundamental to making sound investment decisions. VERSATILE Mutual Fund price charts contain significant noise that can obscure meaningful trends.VERSATILE BOND Related Equities
The following equities are related to VERSATILE BOND within the Short-Term Bond space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing VERSATILE BOND against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
VERSATILE BOND Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for VERSATILE BOND mutual fund provide investors with a framework for assessing how the security responds to changing market conditions. These indicators help determine optimal entry and exit points for trading VERSATILE BOND.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 64.88 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 64.88 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.09 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.17 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.2 |
VERSATILE BOND Risk Indicators
Assessing VERSATILE BOND's risk indicators is a critical component of any rigorous approach to forecasting its future price. Understanding the risk involved in holding VERSATILE BOND's allows investors to make an informed decision about whether to accept or mitigate that exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.072 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.0791 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.0909 | |||
| Variance | 0.0083 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0101 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0063 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.08 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for VERSATILE BOND
A coverage review of Versatile Bond Portfolio helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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