T ROWE Mutual Fund Forward View
| PRMSX Fund | USD 45.58 -1.40 -2.98% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for T ROWE is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 46.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.24.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of T Rowe Price. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict T ROWE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for T ROWE presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of T Rowe Price on the next trading day is expected to be 46.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.58 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.56 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 35.24 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict PRMSX Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that T ROWE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest T ROWE | T ROWE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates T ROWE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 44.94 and upside near 47.73.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of T ROWE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent T ROWE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5309 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5777 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.012 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 35.2391 |
Other Forecasting Options for T ROWE
The distribution of T ROWE's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in T ROWE's chart that simple price charts miss.T ROWE Related Equities
Investors studying T ROWE often look at related stocks within the Diversified Emerging Mkts space to gauge pricing and results. Profit comparisons show whether T ROWE earns above or below average returns next to its peers.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
T ROWE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for T ROWE give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in T Rowe Price.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.97 | |||
| Day Median Price | 45.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 45.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.70 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -1.40 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.98 |
T ROWE Risk Indicators
A thorough review of T ROWE's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in T ROWE's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.947 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.52 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Variance | 1.85 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.32 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.85 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for T ROWE
The amount of media and story coverage tied to T Rowe Price can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.