Vaxcyte Stock Forward View
| PCVX Stock | USD 55.62 1.04 1.91% |
Momentum
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter -1.53 | EPS Estimate Current Year -7.14 | EPS Estimate Next Year -7.29 | Wall Street Target Price 109 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter -1.50 |
This section provides headline-driven context for Vaxcyte alongside peer activity. Sentiment context here is built from Vaxcyte's options activity and short interest data.
Short Interest Detail for Vaxcyte
Institutional short sellers typically conduct extensive research before shorting Vaxcyte. High and rising short interest may reflect informed negative views about Vaxcyte's near-term financial performance.
200 Day MA 42.0819 | Short Percent 0.1019 | Short Ratio 8.18 | Shares Short Prior Month 13.8 M | 50 Day MA 53.9242 |
RSI Reading for Vaxcyte
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vaxcyte on the next trading day is expected to be 53.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.64.Vaxcyte Hype-Price Relationship
For Vaxcyte, sentiment analysis bridges the gap between reported news and actual price behavior. When Vaxcyte's sentiment is strongly positive but the stock is declining, it may signal distribution by informed sellers.
Vaxcyte's sentiment trend over time - whether improving, deteriorating, or plateauing - provides context for interpreting recent price moves in Vaxcyte.
Vaxcyte Implied Volatility | 1.61 |
Falling Vaxcyte's implied volatility after a period of elevated uncertainty is generally a positive sign for existing option holders - known as a 'volatility crush.' This compression often follows earnings announcements or resolution of major risk events for Vaxcyte.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vaxcyte on the next trading day is expected to be 53.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40 and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.64.Vaxcyte after-hype prediction price | $ 56.6 |
Hype signals are presented as complementary context to forecasting, technicals, analyst estimates, earnings, and momentum.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vaxcyte to cross-verify projections for Vaxcyte. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Rule 16 for the current Vaxcyte contract
Based on Rule 16, the market-implied daily move for 2026-04-17 options is about 10.06%. At a recent price around $ 55.62, the implied daily move is approximately $ 5.6 , which is informational only.
Open Interest Context: Vaxcyte 2026-04-17 Options
Open interest summarizes open contracts on Vaxcyte and offers neutral context on positioning.
Vaxcyte Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vaxcyte price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vaxcyte using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vaxcyte charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Vaxcyte Cash Forecast
Advanced forecasting models applied to Vaxcyte's historical financial data can identify non-obvious patterns that simple trend extrapolation misses. These insights directly inform valuation estimates for Vaxcyte.
Cash | First Reported 2019-03-31 | Previous Quarter 281.1 M | Current Value 174 M | Quarterly Volatility 242.9 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 17th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Vaxcyte on the next trading day is expected to be 53.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.40 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 85.64 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Vaxcyte Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Vaxcyte's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vaxcyte | Vaxcyte Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Vaxcyte focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Used properly, these levels provide context around forecast dispersion rather than certainty about the next closing print.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Vaxcyte stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Vaxcyte stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 119.2363 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4039 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0269 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 85.6403 |
Valuation-driven investors use mean reversion to time Vaxcyte's investments: buying when it trades materially below its historical average valuation multiples and selling when it reaches premium territory.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution chart for Vaxcyte visualizes our statistical uncertainty about Vaxcyte's future price. This uncertainty is inherent in all forecasting, and any model claiming to eliminate it for Vaxcyte should be viewed with skepticism.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Our news impact model for Vaxcyte estimates the statistical distribution of after-hype price outcomes based on Vaxcyte's historical reactions to comparable events. Vaxcyte's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 53.78 and 59.42, respectively. The model is descriptive rather than predictive and reflects what has historically happened - not what will.
Current Value
This after-hype projection for Vaxcyte uses a 3 months horizon to examine how price may behave after short-term sentiment effects dissipate. Vaxcyte is Very Low at this time.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vaxcyte is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vaxcyte backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vaxcyte, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.43 | 2.81 | 2.17 | 0.26 | 7 Events | 7 Events | In 7 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
55.62 | 56.60 | 3.70 |
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Hype Timeline
Vaxcyte is at this time traded for 55.62. The company has historical hype elasticity of 2.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.26. Vaxcyte is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 56.6 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 55.75%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 3.7%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.43%. The volatility of related hype on Vaxcyte is about 468.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 55.88. Vaxcyte currently holds $228.84 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.06, which may suggest Vaxcyte is not taking enough advantage from borrowing. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 7 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vaxcyte to cross-verify projections for Vaxcyte. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
The peer hype summary table for Vaxcyte serves as a competitive intelligence tool, helping investors understand the news sensitivity landscape around Vaxcyte's sector and identify the companies most likely to influence Vaxcyte's near-term performance.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CRSP | Crispr Therapeutics AG | -1.30 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 6.23 | -6.35 | 22.02 | |
| ARWR | Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals | 1.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 3.55 | -5.66 | 18.08 | |
| PTCT | PTC Therapeutics | 0.52 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.1 | 3.21 | -3.52 | 13.10 | |
| KRYS | Krystal Biotech | 3.48 | 9 per month | 2.29 | 0.06 | 4.12 | -3.59 | 14.55 | |
| TGTX | TG Therapeutics | 2.51 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 3.96 | -3.96 | 11.23 | |
| MTSR | Metsera Common Stock | -0.13 | 8 per month | 2.40 | 0.18 | 14.25 | -4.09 | 75.60 | |
| ALKS | Alkermes Plc | -0.33 | 10 per month | 0.00 | -0.01 | 3.73 | -3.30 | 13.65 | |
| CRNX | Crinetics Pharmaceuticals | 0.42 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.08 | 3.48 | -5.35 | 23.50 | |
| ACLX | Arcellx | 0.01 | 12 per month | 1.54 | 0.10 | 4.66 | -3.64 | 77.53 | |
| AKRO | Akero Therapeutics | -0.25 | 4 per month | 0.63 | 0.14 | 3.29 | -2.12 | 16.73 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vaxcyte
Price movement is the most critical factor for any investor assessing the potential of Vaxcyte as an investment. The noise inherent in Vaxcyte Stock price charts can obscure the underlying direction and make investment decisions more challenging.Vaxcyte Related Equities
The following equities are related to Vaxcyte within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Vaxcyte against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vaxcyte Market Strength Events
For investors in Vaxcyte, market strength indicators provide essential context about how the stock responds to prevailing market trends. These tools support more informed decisions about when to trade Vaxcyte for maximum effect.
Vaxcyte Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Vaxcyte's risk indicators provides investors with important context for price forecasting and investment decision-making. By understanding how much risk is embedded in Vaxcyte's investment, investors can make better choices about position sizing,.
| Mean Deviation | 2.25 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.8 | |||
| Variance | 7.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.61 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.68 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Vaxcyte
A coverage review of Vaxcyte helps investors see when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Vaxcyte Short Properties
A short-interest review of Vaxcyte helps investors understand whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 136.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
More Resources for Vaxcyte Stock Analysis
Reviewing Vaxcyte commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Vaxcyte Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Vaxcyte Stock:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Vaxcyte to cross-verify projections for Vaxcyte. The view provides historical context for the projection set. Get started with Vaxcyte Stock investing by reading our How to Invest in Vaxcyte Stock guide.Vaxcyte currently shows ROE of -25.59%, market cap of 7.93 Billion. This analysis of Vaxcyte works best as a complementary layer when evaluating how the security fits in a broader portfolio. The supplemental views below help investors decide how Vaxcyte complements or overlaps with existing portfolio holdings. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
The market value of Vaxcyte is measured differently than book value, which reflects Vaxcyte accounting equity. Vaxcyte's market capitalization is 7.93 B. At P/B 2.93, Vaxcyte trades moderately above book value. Enterprise value stands at 6.42 B. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
The concept of value for Vaxcyte differs from its quoted price, since each reflects a different lens. For Vaxcyte, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 2.93, and ROE of -25.59%. The quoted Vaxcyte price is the exchange level where supply meets demand.