Passage Bio Stock Forward View
| PASG Stock | USD 6.89 -0.21 -2.96% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for Passage Bio is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Passage Bio on the next trading day is expected to be 7.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.34.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Passage Bio. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Passage Bio. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for Passage Bio presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Passage Bio Cash Forecast
Analysts forecasting Passage Bio's cash flows use statistical models that capture seasonal patterns. Revenue growth rates, margin trends, and working capital efficiency drive the modeling of Passage Bio's cash evolution.
Cash | First Reported 2018-12-31 | Previous Quarter 52.8 M | Current Value 46.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 99.9 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Passage Bio on the next trading day is expected to be 7.86 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.71 , mean absolute percentage error of 1.05 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.34 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Passage Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Passage Bio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Passage Bio | Passage Bio Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Passage Bio uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.05 and upside near 15.67.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Passage Bio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Passage Bio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.161 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7104 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0593 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.3352 |
Other Forecasting Options for Passage Bio
The distribution of Passage Bio's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in Passage Bio's chart that simple price charts miss.Passage Bio Related Equities
Sizing up Passage Bio against these stocks within the Health Care space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. Peer review is most useful when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. The peer review below gives a clear framework for judging Passage Bio's standing among rivals.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Passage Bio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Passage Bio give insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Passage Bio.
Passage Bio Risk Indicators
A thorough review of Passage Bio's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in Passage Bio's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 5.19 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 7.66 | |||
| Variance | 58.72 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Passage Bio
Coverage intensity for Passage Bio matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
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Passage Bio Short Properties
A short-interest review of Passage Bio provides context for understanding whether skepticism in the market is becoming more influential. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 46.3 M |