NextCure Stock Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| NXTC Stock | USD 13.82 0.22 1.62% |
Momentum
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter -1.85 | EPS Estimate Current Year -8.21 | EPS Estimate Next Year -6.31 | Wall Street Target Price 17.6667 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter -2.29 |
This section frames NextCure response to recent headlines in a peer context.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of NextCure on the next trading day is expected to be 13.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.45.NextCure after-hype prediction price | $ 13.6 |
This view helps relate attention signals to forecasting and technical indicators plus earnings context.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of NextCure provides a cross-check on projections for NextCure. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.NextCure Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NextCure price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NextCure using various technical indicators. When you analyze NextCure charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NextCure Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 13th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of NextCure on the next trading day is expected to be 13.71 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.45 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.30 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 26.45 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NextCure Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NextCure's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NextCure Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NextCure | NextCure Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
NextCure Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for NextCure uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NextCure stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NextCure stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.2453 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0607 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.4483 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0361 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 26.45 |
The degree to which NextCure's exhibits mean reversion depends on how efficiently the market prices new information. In highly covered equities, the mean reversion window tends to be shorter.
NextCure After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The after-hype price distribution for NextCure helps investors understand how much of NextCure's predicted return comes from the central scenario versus tail outcomes. Strategies that rely on tail events for NextCure are inherently more speculative.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NextCure Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
Historical news patterns for NextCure reveal how the market has historically digested different types of information about NextCure's business and market environment. NextCure's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 9.62 and 17.58, respectively. The model extrapolates these patterns to estimate likely price boundaries following the next significant.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to NextCure assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
NextCure Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NextCure is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NextCure backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NextCure, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.41 | 4.00 | 0.17 | 0.02 | 5 Events | 6 Events | In 5 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.82 | 13.60 | 0.00 |
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NextCure Hype Timeline
NextCure is now traded for 13.82. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.17, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.02. NextCure is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.41%. %. The volatility of related hype on NextCure is about 9302.33%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.80. About 15.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.88. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. NextCure has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.03. The company recorded a loss per share of 23.81. The firm had not issued any dividends in recent years. NextCure completed a 1:12 stock split on 14th of July 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in 5 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of NextCure provides a cross-check on projections for NextCure. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set.NextCure Related Hype Analysis
Peer hype analysis helps investors build a more complete picture of NextCure's competitive environment by quantifying the market's sensitivity to news across all major players in NextCure's sector.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| QTTB | Q32 Bio | -0.16 | 7 per month | 3.84 | 0.21 | 9.74 | -7.42 | 18.37 | |
| PSTV | Plus Therapeutics | -0.01 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 7.69 | -8.82 | 48.10 | |
| BOLD | Boundless Bio Common | -0.02 | 8 per month | 1.83 | 0.05 | 4.07 | -3.54 | 16.75 | |
| VRCA | Verrica Pharmaceuticals | 0.05 | 9 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 6.97 | -7.95 | 26.49 | |
| ANTX | AN2 Therapeutics | -0.01 | 8 per month | 2.37 | 0.22 | 26.42 | -4.59 | 80.21 | |
| JSPR | Jasper Therapeutics | -0.21 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.07 | 7.19 | -7.97 | 27.16 | |
| INTS | Intensity Therapeutics Common | -0.15 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.04 | 9.86 | -10.12 | 44.33 | |
| PLUR | Pluri Inc | 0.04 | 6 per month | 3.60 | 0.02 | 9.90 | -5.25 | 22.62 | |
| TAOX | TAO Synergies | 0.05 | 1 per month | 0.00 | -0.03 | 12.08 | -10.13 | 33.82 | |
| ITRM | Iterum Therapeutics PLC | -0.01 | 7 per month | 0.00 | -0.12 | 12.50 | -8.82 | 66.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for NextCure
The price trajectory of NextCure is the primary concern for any investor assessing it as an opportunity. NextCure Stock price charts are filled with noise that can easily mislead uninformed investment decisions.NextCure Related Equities
The following equities are related to NextCure within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing NextCure against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NextCure Market Strength Events
Understanding the market strength of NextCure stock enables investors to assess the security's momentum and responsiveness to broader market forces. These indicators are essential tools for timing trades in NextCure with greater precision.
NextCure Risk Indicators
Reviewing NextCure's basic risk indicators is essential for investors who want to forecast its price and manage their investment risk effectively. This analysis helps identify the amount of risk involved in holding NextCure's and informs decisions about hedging and position.
| Mean Deviation | 3.22 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.05 | |||
| Variance | 16.44 | |||
| Downside Variance | 14.95 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.44 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -3.39 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NextCure
Coverage intensity for NextCure matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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NextCure Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to NextCure matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 2.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 41.8 M |
More Resources for NextCure Stock Analysis
A structured review of NextCure often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for NextCure Stock. Highlighted below are reports that provide context for NextCure Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of NextCure provides a cross-check on projections for NextCure. The analysis adds historical context for the projection set. Explore our How to Trade NextCure Stock guide to learn how to trade NextCure effectively.Analysis related to NextCure should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Top Crypto Exchanges module to search and analyze digital assets across top global cryptocurrency exchanges.
Investors evaluate NextCure using market value and book value, each describing different facets of the business. NextCure's market capitalization is 47.68 M. A P/B ratio of 1.88 indicates the market values NextCure above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 19.82 M. Intrinsic value is an estimate of what NextCure's fundamentals imply, and it may differ from market and book figures. Analytical frameworks help compare those viewpoints.
Value and price for NextCure are related but not identical, and they can diverge across cycles. For NextCure, key inputs include a P/B ratio of 1.88, and ROE of -111.23%. By contrast, market price reflects the level where buyers and sellers transact.