New Pacific Stock Forward View

NEWP Stock  USD 3.70  0.02  0.54%   
This page provides Naive Prediction reference data for New Pacific Metals, calculated from historical daily prices. The model output shown here is derived from New Pacific's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes. Projected values and accuracy measures are included for reference.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Pacific Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 3.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.63.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of New Pacific Metals. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict New Pacific. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction reference information for New Pacific is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes.

New Pacific Cash Forecast

Projecting New Pacific's cash position requires modeling complex interactions between revenue and capital cycles. These tools uncover hidden patterns in New Pacific's financial statements to forecast their impact on future performance. The relationship between New Pacific's revenue growth and capital intensity shapes the cash flow outlook.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
2002-03-31
 Previous Quarter
15.7 M
 Current Value
56.9 M
 Quarterly Volatility
13.1 M
Macro event markers
 
Housing Crash
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for New Pacific is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of New Pacific Metals value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of New Pacific Metals on the next trading day is expected to be 3.54 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.32 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.16 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 19.63 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict New Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that New Pacific's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest New Pacific  New Pacific Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates New Pacific's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 0.04 and upside near 9.93.
Market Value
3.70
3.54
Expected Value
9.93
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of New Pacific stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent New Pacific stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.3036
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3218
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0797
SAESum of the absolute errors19.6318
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of New Pacific Metals. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict New Pacific. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for New Pacific

The autocorrelation structure of New Pacific's daily returns reveals whether New exhibits momentum, mean-reversion, or random-walk behavior. Separating these elements helps distinguish persistent directional moves from temporary noise in New Stock price data. Stochastic oscillator analysis compares New Pacific's closing price to its range over a given period.

New Pacific Related Equities

These stocks within the Information Technology space are often compared to New Pacific by analysts and fund managers in the sector. Market cap and total value checks frame New Pacific's size within the competitive field. When New Pacific breaks from its peer group on a key metric, it often signals a firm-level change worth exploring. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

New Pacific Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators applied to New Pacific stock help assess momentum and resilience across environments. These indicators support informed market timing decisions when analyzing New Pacific. For New Pacific Metals, market strength indicators complement fundamental analysis with timing context.

New Pacific Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for New Pacific is essential for accurately projecting its future price trajectory. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in New Pacific's investment and either accepting or mitigating it. Understanding the risk profile of New Pacific's allows investors to make more informed decisions about position sizing.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for New Pacific

A coverage review of New Pacific Metals shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.

New Pacific Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to New Pacific Metals matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. A disciplined short-interest review can make timing decisions more informed under rising skepticism.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding171.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments16.8 M

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