DISCIPLINED VALUE Mutual Fund Forward View
| MDFSX Fund | USD 8.20 -0.05 -0.61% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for DISCIPLINED VALUE is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Disciplined Value Series on the next trading day is expected to be 8.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.28.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Disciplined Value Series. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict DISCIPLINED VALUE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for DISCIPLINED VALUE presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Disciplined Value Series on the next trading day is expected to be 8.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.05 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.004 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.28 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict DISCIPLINED Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that DISCIPLINED VALUE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest DISCIPLINED VALUE | DISCIPLINED VALUE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates DISCIPLINED VALUE's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 7.49 on the downside to about 9.04 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of DISCIPLINED VALUE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent DISCIPLINED VALUE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5935 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0537 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0064 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.2753 |
Other Forecasting Options for DISCIPLINED VALUE
The distribution of DISCIPLINED VALUE's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in DISCIPLINED VALUE's chart that simple price charts miss.DISCIPLINED VALUE Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as DISCIPLINED VALUE within the Large Value space and serve as useful points for comparison. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
DISCIPLINED VALUE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for DISCIPLINED VALUE give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Disciplined Value Series.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.2 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.05 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.45 |
DISCIPLINED VALUE Risk Indicators
A thorough review of DISCIPLINED VALUE's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in DISCIPLINED VALUE's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5868 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.6243 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.7775 | |||
| Variance | 0.6046 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.616 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.3897 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for DISCIPLINED VALUE
A coverage review of Disciplined Value Series shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. Used properly, this context can help investors judge whether visibility is reinforcing the thesis or attracting more speculative pressure.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.