Limbach Holdings Stock Forward View
| LMB Stock | USD 70.48 -2.56 -3.50% |
This page documents Naive Prediction forecast output for Limbach Holdings as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Limbach Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 70.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.45.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Limbach Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Limbach Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction reference information for Limbach Holdings is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes. Limbach Holdings Cash Forecast
The forecast of Limbach Holdings' future cash flows is built on systematic analysis of its historical financial statements, supplemented by sector-specific assumptions and macroeconomic inputs.
Cash | First Reported 2014-06-30 | Previous Quarter 9.9 M | Current Value 11.3 M | Quarterly Volatility 20.2 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Limbach Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 70.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 6.81 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.45 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Limbach Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Limbach Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Limbach Holdings | Limbach Holdings Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Limbach Holdings focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 66.73 and upside near 73.32.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Limbach Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Limbach Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.0289 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.0237 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0239 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 123.4473 |
Other Forecasting Options for Limbach Holdings
Any investor evaluating Limbach must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Limbach Holdings' price movement accurately. Limbach Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.Limbach Holdings Related Equities
The following equities are related to Limbach Holdings within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Limbach Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Limbach Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for Limbach Holdings assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Limbach Holdings.
Limbach Holdings Risk Indicators
Risk indicator analysis for Limbach Holdings is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Limbach Holdings' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 2.64 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.25 | |||
| Variance | 10.59 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Limbach Holdings
Story coverage around Limbach Holdings often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
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Limbach Holdings Short Properties
Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Limbach Holdings is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.3 M |