Limbach Holdings Stock Forward View

LMB Stock  USD 70.48  -2.56  -3.50%   
This page documents Naive Prediction forecast output for Limbach Holdings as reference data. The model is applied to historical closing prices and the resulting projection and error statistics are shown below.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Limbach Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 70.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.45.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Limbach Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Limbach Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction reference information for Limbach Holdings is based on available price data and is intended for informational purposes.

Limbach Holdings Cash Forecast

The forecast of Limbach Holdings' future cash flows is built on systematic analysis of its historical financial statements, supplemented by sector-specific assumptions and macroeconomic inputs.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
2014-06-30
 Previous Quarter
9.9 M
 Current Value
11.3 M
 Quarterly Volatility
20.2 M
Macro event markers
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Limbach Holdings is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Limbach Holdings value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Limbach Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 70.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.02 , mean absolute percentage error of 6.81 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 123.45 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Limbach Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Limbach Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Limbach Holdings  Limbach Holdings Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Limbach Holdings focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. The current forecast range spans downside near 66.73 and upside near 73.32.
Market Value
70.48
70.02
Expected Value
73.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Limbach Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Limbach Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria120.0289
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.0237
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0239
SAESum of the absolute errors123.4473
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Limbach Holdings. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Limbach Holdings. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for Limbach Holdings

Any investor evaluating Limbach must grapple with the challenge of interpreting Limbach Holdings' price movement accurately. Limbach Stock price charts typically contain substantial noise that can complicate analysis and lead to poor decisions.

Limbach Holdings Related Equities

The following equities are related to Limbach Holdings within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Limbach Holdings against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Limbach Holdings Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Limbach Holdings assess how the stock responds to ongoing changes in market conditions and investor sentiment. By monitoring these indicators, investors can identify the most opportune moments to trade Limbach Holdings.

Limbach Holdings Risk Indicators

Risk indicator analysis for Limbach Holdings is a critical component of accurate price forecasting and sound investment decision-making. By identifying how much risk is embedded in Limbach Holdings' investment, investors can decide how to position and protect their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Limbach Holdings

Story coverage around Limbach Holdings often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.

Limbach Holdings Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Limbach Holdings is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding12.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments11.3 M

More Resources for Limbach Stock Analysis

Analysis of Limbach Holdings often begins with its financial statements and historical patterns. Ratios connect earnings, costs, and operational efficiency. All figures are aligned with Limbach Holdings' latest available data.