HORIZON ACTIVE Mutual Fund Forward View
| HASIX Fund | USD 14.27 -0.32 -2.19% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for HORIZON ACTIVE is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Naive Prediction output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Horizon Active Asset on the next trading day is expected to be 14.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.03.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Horizon Active Asset. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict HORIZON ACTIVE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for HORIZON ACTIVE presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Horizon Active Asset on the next trading day is expected to be 14.23 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.1 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 6.03 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict HORIZON Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that HORIZON ACTIVE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest HORIZON ACTIVE | HORIZON ACTIVE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Horizon Active Asset focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 13.34 and upside around 15.13 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of HORIZON ACTIVE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent HORIZON ACTIVE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.9259 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0988 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0065 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 6.0258 |
Other Forecasting Options for HORIZON ACTIVE
The distribution of HORIZON ACTIVE's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in HORIZON ACTIVE's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of HORIZON ACTIVE's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in HORIZON.HORIZON ACTIVE Related Equities
HORIZON ACTIVE's market space within the Tactical Allocation space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Growth rate gaps between HORIZON ACTIVE and its peers often explain pricing differences in the market.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
HORIZON ACTIVE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for HORIZON ACTIVE give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Horizon Active Asset. Market strength analysis for Horizon Active Asset works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For HORIZON ACTIVE, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.27 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 14.27 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.16 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.32 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 44.64 |
HORIZON ACTIVE Risk Indicators
A thorough review of HORIZON ACTIVE's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in HORIZON ACTIVE's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of HORIZON ACTIVE's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in HORIZON ACTIVE's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7444 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.9658 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Variance | 1.05 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.9328 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.78 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for HORIZON ACTIVE
Coverage intensity for Horizon Active Asset matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The practical risk is that faster visibility can increase both interest and skepticism at the same time.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.