GLG Intl Mutual Fund Forward View
| GLVIX Fund | USD 76.58 -1.44 -1.85% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for GLG Intl is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information. This data is provided for reference and analytical review. The Naive Prediction output serves as one input among many for analytical review.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Glg Intl Small on the next trading day is expected to be 74.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.89.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Glg Intl Small. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict GLG Intl. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for GLG Intl presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Glg Intl Small on the next trading day is expected to be 74.55 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.72 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.81 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 43.89 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict GLG Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that GLG Intl's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GLG Intl | GLG Intl Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates GLG Intl's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 73.53 on the downside to about 75.56 on the upside.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of GLG Intl mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent GLG Intl mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.9046 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.7196 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0087 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 43.8926 |
Other Forecasting Options for GLG Intl
The distribution of GLG Intl's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in GLG Intl's chart that simple price charts miss. The slope of GLG Intl's linear regression channel quantifies trend direction and strength over a chosen lookback period. Divergences between OBV and price can foreshadow trend changes in GLG.GLG Intl Related Equities
GLG Intl's market space within the World Large-Stock Growth space is best grasped by looking at the firms listed below. Return on equity across these peers shows how well each firm turns capital into profit.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GLG Intl Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for GLG Intl give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in Glg Intl Small. Market strength analysis for Glg Intl Small works best when combined with volume and volatility data. For GLG Intl, strength indicators are a practical complement to price and fundamental analysis.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 76.58 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 76.58 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.72 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -1.44 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 35.72 |
GLG Intl Risk Indicators
A thorough review of GLG Intl's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in GLG Intl's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging. The assessment of GLG Intl's risk indicators plays a key role in managing investment exposure. Identifying the magnitude of risk in GLG Intl's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging exposure.
| Mean Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.14 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.2 | |||
| Variance | 4.82 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.43 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.3 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.17 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for GLG Intl
A coverage review of Glg Intl Small shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. This is most useful when investors want to understand why a security is suddenly drawing more public discussion.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis story coverage is designed for a broad investing audience that ranges from self-directed traders to advisers, researchers, and institutional market participants. The content is intended to support people who want a more structured path from headline information to portfolio action.