FRANKLIN MODERATE Mutual Fund Forward View
| FMTIX Fund | USD 16.39 -0.01 -0.06% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for FRANKLIN MODERATE is reference data produced from the equity's historical price series. Accuracy metrics including mean absolute deviation are provided alongside the projection.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Franklin Moderate Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 16.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.38.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Franklin Moderate Allocation. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict FRANKLIN MODERATE. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for FRANKLIN MODERATE presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Franklin Moderate Allocation on the next trading day is expected to be 16.34 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.07 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 4.38 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict FRANKLIN Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that FRANKLIN MODERATE's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest FRANKLIN MODERATE | FRANKLIN MODERATE Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast for Franklin Moderate Allocation focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. At the moment, the model places downside around 15.68 and upside around 17.00 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of FRANKLIN MODERATE mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent FRANKLIN MODERATE mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.3848 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0718 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0043 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 4.3799 |
Other Forecasting Options for FRANKLIN MODERATE
Regardless of investment experience, understanding FRANKLIN MODERATE's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in FRANKLIN. Price charts for FRANKLIN Mutual Fund are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.FRANKLIN MODERATE Related Equities
The following equities are related to FRANKLIN MODERATE within the Allocation--50% to 70% Equity space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing FRANKLIN MODERATE against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
FRANKLIN MODERATE Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for FRANKLIN MODERATE give investors insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators provides context to make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading FRANKLIN MODERATE is likely to be most rewarding.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.39 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.39 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.01 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.01 |
FRANKLIN MODERATE Risk Indicators
A thorough review of FRANKLIN MODERATE's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis provides context for determining the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding FRANKLIN MODERATE's.
| Mean Deviation | 0.4633 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.5465 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.661 | |||
| Variance | 0.4369 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.3736 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2987 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.50 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for FRANKLIN MODERATE
Coverage intensity for Franklin Moderate Allocation matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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