Companhia Paranaense Stock Forward View

ELPC Stock   11.89  0.21  1.80%   
This Naive Prediction reference page for Companhia Paranaense de presents model-generated forecast data based on historical daily prices. The output values and deviation metrics are provided for informational reference.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Companhia Paranaense de on the next trading day is expected to be 11.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.20.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Companhia Paranaense de. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Companhia Paranaense. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. All Naive Prediction forecast figures shown for Companhia Paranaense de are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices.
A naive forecasting model for Companhia Paranaense is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Companhia Paranaense de value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Companhia Paranaense de on the next trading day is expected to be 11.47 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.25 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 15.20 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Companhia Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Companhia Paranaense's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Companhia Paranaense  Companhia Paranaense Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

The next-day forecast for Companhia Paranaense de focuses on identifying predictive downside and upside bands that can frame a realistic trading range. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Market Value
11.89
11.47
Expected Value
14.54
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Companhia Paranaense stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Companhia Paranaense stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.7017
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2492
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0242
SAESum of the absolute errors15.2011
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Companhia Paranaense de. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Companhia Paranaense. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for Companhia Paranaense

Price movement is the most fundamental factor that determines whether Companhia is a viable investment for any investor. Companhia Stock price charts are often noisy, making it difficult to identify meaningful patterns without analytical tools.

Companhia Paranaense Related Equities

The following equities are related to Companhia Paranaense within the Utilities space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Companhia Paranaense against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Companhia Paranaense Market Strength Events

Assessing the market strength of Companhia Paranaense stock provides investors with a clearer picture of how the security reacts to evolving market dynamics. These indicators can be used to identify periods when trading Companhia Paranaense de is most likely to be profitable.

Companhia Paranaense Risk Indicators

The analysis of Companhia Paranaense's basic risk metrics provides a foundation for forecasting its future price and managing investment risk. Identifying the magnitude of risk in Companhia Paranaense's provides context to choose between accepting or hedging their exposure.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Companhia Paranaense

Story coverage around Companhia Paranaense de often expands when market conditions, narrative momentum, or risk-adjusted performance make the security more visible to investors. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Companhia Paranaense Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Companhia Paranaense de can help investors judge whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding185.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3.1 B

More Resources for Companhia Stock Analysis

A baseline understanding of Companhia Paranaense is formed through its financial statements and trends. Ratios provide structure to financial performance and growth patterns. These metrics are based on Companhia Paranaense's reported financial results. Relevant reports that describe Companhia Paranaense de Stock are shown below: