INTERNATIONAL SMALL Mutual Fund Forward View
| DFISX Fund | USD 25.40 -0.06 -0.24% |
The Naive Prediction forecast shown here for INTERNATIONAL SMALL is reference data produced from its historical price series. The projected value and error measures below serve as reference information.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of International Small Pany on the next trading day is expected to be 25.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.41.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of International Small Pany. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict INTERNATIONAL SMALL. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction reference page for INTERNATIONAL SMALL presents model-generated projections from historical price data for informational purposes. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of International Small Pany on the next trading day is expected to be 25.36 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.08 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.41 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict INTERNATIONAL Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that INTERNATIONAL SMALL's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest INTERNATIONAL SMALL | INTERNATIONAL SMALL Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates INTERNATIONAL SMALL's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The current forecast range spans downside near 24.36 and upside near 26.37.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of INTERNATIONAL SMALL mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent INTERNATIONAL SMALL mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.3993 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2164 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.4147 |
Other Forecasting Options for INTERNATIONAL SMALL
The distribution of INTERNATIONAL SMALL's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This can reveal hidden support and resistance zones in INTERNATIONAL SMALL's chart that simple price charts miss.INTERNATIONAL SMALL Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of INTERNATIONAL SMALL within the Foreign Small/Mid Blend space and offer context for ranking and strength. Checking INTERNATIONAL SMALL against peers on P/E, margins, and return on equity helps put its position in context. Peer pricing works best when the firms compared share similar business models and end markets.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
INTERNATIONAL SMALL Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for INTERNATIONAL SMALL give insight into the mutual fund's responsiveness to broader forces. These indicators are useful for traders seeking optimal timing for positions in International Small Pany.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 25.4 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 25.4 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.03 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.06 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.35 |
INTERNATIONAL SMALL Risk Indicators
A thorough review of INTERNATIONAL SMALL's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price. Quantifying the risk involved in INTERNATIONAL SMALL's allows investors to make better decisions about entry, sizing, and hedging.
| Mean Deviation | 0.7167 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.23 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.9729 | |||
| Variance | 0.9466 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.6 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.5 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for INTERNATIONAL SMALL
A coverage review of International Small Pany shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. A disciplined read of coverage separates durable relevance from temporary noise.
