Delta Air Stock Forward View

DAL Stock  USD 63.34  -0.47  -0.74%   
This reference page presents Naive Prediction forecast data for Delta Air Lines. The model output shown here is derived from Delta Air's historical price series and is provided for informational purposes.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delta Air Lines on the next trading day is expected to be 67.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.23.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Delta Air Lines. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Delta Air. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. This Naive Prediction forecast data for Delta Air Lines is sourced from the most recent available trading data and is intended solely as reference information.

Delta Air Cash Forecast

Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Delta Air's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
1986-06-30
 Previous Quarter
3.8 B
 Current Value
4.3 B
 Quarterly Volatility
2.4 B
Macro event markers
 
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Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Delta Air is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Delta Air Lines value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 20th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Delta Air Lines on the next trading day is expected to be 67.35 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.54 , mean absolute percentage error of 3.66 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 94.23 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Delta Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Delta Air's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Delta Air  Delta Air Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

This next-day forecast for Delta Air Lines uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 64.62 on the downside to about 70.08 on the upside.
Market Value
63.34
67.35
Expected Value
70.08
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Delta Air stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Delta Air stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4072
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.5447
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0226
SAESum of the absolute errors94.2253
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Delta Air Lines. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Delta Air. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for Delta Air

For every potential investor in Delta, whether a beginner or expert, Delta Air's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better.

Delta Air Related Equities

The following equities are related to Delta Air within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Delta Air against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Delta Air Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Delta Air stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Delta Air shares will generate the highest return on.

Delta Air Risk Indicators

The analysis of Delta Air's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Delta Air's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Delta Air

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Delta Air Lines can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Delta Air Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Delta Air Lines matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. The stronger read compares short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding654 M
Cash And Short Term Investments4.3 B

More Resources for Delta Stock Analysis

Reviewing Delta Air Lines commonly begins with financial statements and performance trends. Key ratios help frame profitability, efficiency, and growth context for Delta Air Lines Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for Delta Air Lines Stock: