CompX International Stock Forward View
| CIX Stock | USD 24.30 0.81 3.45% |
Momentum
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.214 | Wall Street Target Price 38 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.187 |
The hype perspective for CompX International maps headline activity to recent price response and peer coverage.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of CompX International on the next trading day is expected to be 24.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.21.CompX International after-hype prediction price | $ 24.3 |
Sentiment metrics here complement forecasting and technical views with analyst and earnings context.
Historical Fundamental Analysis of CompX International can be used to cross-verify projections for CompX International. The view provides historical context for the projection set.CompX International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine CompX price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for CompX using various technical indicators. When you analyze CompX charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
CompX International Cash Forecast
Projecting CompX International's cash position requires modeling complex interactions between revenue trends, working capital cycles, and capital expenditure patterns embedded in CompX International's historical financial statements.
Cash | First Reported 1997-12-31 | Previous Quarter 46.3 M | Current Value 54.1 M | Quarterly Volatility 19.7 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 15th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of CompX International on the next trading day is expected to be 24.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.34 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.18 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.21 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict CompX Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that CompX International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest CompX International | CompX International Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for CompX International uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of CompX International stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent CompX International stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.2262 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3421 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0144 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.209 |
The mean reversion principle applied to CompX International's suggests that neither prolonged outperformance nor underperformance is permanent. Investors exploit this by positioning against extremes in price relative to fundamental value.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
Probability distributions applied to CompX International price forecasting provide a more honest representation of uncertainty than single point estimates. The shape of CompX International's distribution - whether it is symmetric, skewed, or fat-tailed - carries important information for risk.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
News-driven price analysis for CompX International quantifies the historical relationship between headline events and CompX International's short-term price response. CompX International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.09 and 26.51, respectively. The strength of this signal depends on the consistency of CompX International's past reactions to comparable news categories.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to CompX International assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as CompX International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading CompX International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with CompX International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.02 | 2.20 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 3 Events | 6 Events | In 3 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
24.30 | 24.30 | 0.00 |
|
Hype Timeline
On the 14th of March 2026 CompX International is traded for 24.30. The company has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. CompX is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is currently at 0.02%. %. The volatility of related hype on CompX International is about 1105.53%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 24.30. About 88.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders. The book value of CompX International was currently reported as 11.17. The company last dividend was issued on the 21st of November 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 3 days. Historical Fundamental Analysis of CompX International can be used to cross-verify projections for CompX International. The view provides historical context for the projection set.Related Hype Analysis
When a direct competitor of CompX International experiences a significant news event, the market often re-rates CompX International's shares in sympathy or in contrast, depending on whether the news affects the sector broadly or competitively.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NL | NL Industries | 0.26 | 3 per month | 2.71 | 0.08 | 4.46 | -5.68 | 20.30 | |
| MG | Mistras Group | 0.24 | 10 per month | 1.81 | 0.18 | 3.85 | -3.88 | 9.94 | |
| RLGT | Radiant Logistics | -0.17 | 9 per month | 2.55 | 0.05 | 3.86 | -4.53 | 23.53 | |
| MEC | Mayville Engineering Co | -0.14 | 20 per month | 2.66 | 0.01 | 4.64 | -4.98 | 14.08 | |
| FSTR | LB Foster | 1.48 | 6 per month | 1.96 | 0.03 | 3.52 | -3.09 | 14.10 | |
| PKOH | Park Ohio Holdings | -0.1 | 10 per month | 2.27 | 0.09 | 4.75 | -3.61 | 14.58 | |
| OFLX | Omega Flex | -0.44 | 7 per month | 3.55 | 0.05 | 4.47 | -4.12 | 24.54 | |
| SPCE | Virgin Galactic Holdings | -0.12 | 11 per month | 0.00 | -0.19 | 6.00 | -6.79 | 16.26 | |
| QUAD | Quad Graphics | 0.37 | 8 per month | 2.33 | 0.08 | 3.87 | -5.12 | 12.61 | |
| TGEN | Tecogen | 0.61 | 6 per month | 0.00 | -0.23 | 7.14 | -9.66 | 28.49 |
Other Forecasting Options for CompX International
Regardless of investment experience, understanding CompX International's price movement is essential for anyone considering a position in CompX. Price charts for CompX Stock are often filled with noise that can lead to poor investment choices if not properly filtered.CompX International Related Equities
The following equities are related to CompX International within the Industrials space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing CompX International against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
CompX International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators for CompX International give investors insight into the stock's responsiveness to broader market forces. Tracking these indicators helps investors make informed timing decisions and identify periods where trading CompX International is likely to be most rewarding.
CompX International Risk Indicators
A thorough review of CompX International's risk indicators is an important first step in forecasting its price and managing investment exposure. This analysis helps investors determine the appropriate level of risk to accept when holding CompX International's.
| Mean Deviation | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.09 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.74 | |||
| Variance | 7.51 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.57 | |||
| Semi Variance | 4.35 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -2.36 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for CompX International
Coverage intensity for CompX International matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
CompX International Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to CompX International matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 12.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 54.1 M |
More Resources for CompX Stock Analysis
Understanding CompX International typically begins with financial statements and long-term trend review. Ratio context helps frame profitability, efficiency, and growth trends for CompX International Stock. Outlined below are key reports that provide context for CompX International Stock:Historical Fundamental Analysis of CompX International can be used to cross-verify projections for CompX International. The view provides historical context for the projection set. New to investing in CompX Stock? Start with our How to Invest in CompX Stock guide for a step-by-step overview.Analysis related to CompX International should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.214 | Dividend Share 1.2 | Earnings Share 1.57 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.187 |
CompX International's market price can diverge from book value, the accounting figure shown on CompX's balance sheet. CompX International's market capitalization is 272.34 M. A P/B ratio of 2.16 indicates the market values CompX International above its accounting book value. Enterprise value stands at 245.35 M. Intrinsic value reflects what CompX International's fundamentals imply about worth, which may differ from both the trading price and the book figure. Analytical frameworks help reconcile those views.
It is useful to distinguish CompX International's value from its trading price, which are computed with different methods. For CompX International, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 23.39, a P/B ratio of 2.16, a profit margin of 12.15%, and ROE of 13.65%. The quoted price is simply the exchange level where supply meets demand.