Aspire BioPharma Stock Forward View

ASBP Stock   1.13  0.33  41.25%   
Aspire BioPharma's Naive Prediction reference data reflects the model's output when applied to available daily price observations. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference. The projected value and error metrics are calculated from available daily price observations.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aspire BioPharma on the next trading day is expected to be 1.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.25.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aspire BioPharma. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aspire BioPharma. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. The Naive Prediction reference values for Aspire BioPharma are derived from publicly available price data and should be used for informational purposes only.

Aspire BioPharma Cash Forecast

The forecast of Aspire BioPharma's future cash flows is built on systematic analysis of historical financial statements. Recurring patterns in Aspire BioPharma's financial data may predict future operating performance. Identifying stable patterns in Aspire BioPharma's historical data and adjusting for structural changes is the first step.
 
Cash  
 First Reported
2010-12-31
 Previous Quarter
3.3 K
 Current Value
3.1 K
 Quarterly Volatility
215.1 K
Macro event markers
 
Credit Downgrade
 
Yuan Drop
 
Covid
 
Interest Hikes
A naive forecasting model for Aspire BioPharma is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Aspire BioPharma value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of March

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aspire BioPharma on the next trading day is expected to be 1.61 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.09 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.25 .
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aspire Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aspire BioPharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Aspire BioPharma  Aspire BioPharma Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

For the next trading day, Macroaxis evaluates Aspire BioPharma's predictive range by looking for statistically meaningful downside and upside boundaries. The projected forecast band currently runs from roughly 0.01 on the downside to about 14.59 on the upside.
Market Value
1.13
1.61
Expected Value
14.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aspire BioPharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aspire BioPharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.5715
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2138
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.1033
SAESum of the absolute errors13.253
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Aspire BioPharma. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Aspire BioPharma. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Other Forecasting Options for Aspire BioPharma

Relative Strength Index values for Aspire measure the speed and magnitude of recent price changes. Recognizing these clusters in Aspire BioPharma's returns helps calibrate position size and stop-loss levels. Candlestick pattern analysis of Aspire Stock daily data can reveal short-term reversal or continuation signals.

Aspire BioPharma Related Equities

These related stocks within the Health Care space give benchmarks for judging Aspire BioPharma's results, margins, and growth trend. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Aspire BioPharma's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. A stock that beats its peers on many metrics often deserves a closer look from value-focused investors.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Aspire BioPharma Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators provide a structured view of how Aspire BioPharma stock is positioned relative to trends. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Aspire BioPharma. These signals help validate or refine position timing for Aspire BioPharma.

Aspire BioPharma Risk Indicators

The analysis of Aspire BioPharma's risk metrics is one of the most important steps in projecting its future price. This process quantifies the risk associated with Aspire BioPharma's and helps determine how to manage it. A structured analysis of Aspire BioPharma's risk indicators is one of the most reliable ways to improve forecast accuracy.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Aspire BioPharma

The amount of media and story coverage tied to Aspire BioPharma can signal where market attention is concentrating at the moment. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.

Aspire BioPharma Short Properties

Short sentiment tied to Aspire BioPharma matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. This is most valuable when investors want to know whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding33 M
Cash And Short Term Investments3633.00

Additional Tools for Aspire Stock Analysis

Instant Ratings
Determine any equity ratings based on digital recommendations. Macroaxis instant equity ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Bond Analysis
Evaluate and analyze corporate bonds as a potential investment for your portfolios.
Price Ceiling Movement
Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments
Positions Ratings
Determine portfolio positions ratings based on digital equity recommendations. Macroaxis instant position ratings are based on combination of fundamental analysis and risk-adjusted market performance
Bollinger Bands
Use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon
Odds Of Bankruptcy
Get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years
Equity Valuation
Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data
Idea Optimizer
Use advanced portfolio builder with pre-computed micro ideas to build optimal portfolio