AMANA DEVELOPING Mutual Fund Forward View
| AMIDX Fund | USD 16.68 -0.08 -0.48% |
The Naive Prediction forecast reference data for Amana Developing World is based on the equity's recent trading history. This page summarizes the model output and key accuracy metrics for reference.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amana Developing World on the next trading day is expected to be 16.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.47.This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Amana Developing World. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict AMANA DEVELOPING. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights. All Naive Prediction forecast figures shown for Amana Developing World are reference data reflecting model output based on available historical prices. Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 21st of March
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Amana Developing World on the next trading day is expected to be 16.59 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.06 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.47 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict AMANA Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that AMANA DEVELOPING's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
| Backtest AMANA DEVELOPING | AMANA DEVELOPING Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
Forecasting Amana Developing World for the next session involves measuring the model's historical ability to define credible downside and upside scenarios. At the moment, the model places downside around 15.39 and upside around 17.78 for the forecasting period.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of AMANA DEVELOPING mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent AMANA DEVELOPING mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.1221 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1851 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0108 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.4736 |
Other Forecasting Options for AMANA DEVELOPING
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering AMANA needs to understand the dynamics of AMANA DEVELOPING's price movement. Price charts for AMANA Mutual Fund contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.AMANA DEVELOPING Related Equities
The following equities are related to AMANA DEVELOPING within the Diversified Emerging Mkts space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing AMANA DEVELOPING against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
AMANA DEVELOPING Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for AMANA DEVELOPING enables investors to understand how the mutual fund performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Amana Developing World.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.68 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.68 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | -0.04 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | -0.08 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 47.38 |
AMANA DEVELOPING Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing AMANA DEVELOPING's key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process quantifies the risk associated with AMANA DEVELOPING's and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 0.9187 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Variance | 1.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.01 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.43 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -0.93 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for AMANA DEVELOPING
A coverage review of Amana Developing World shows when the security is attracting above-average attention from contributors and market observers. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Macroaxis publishes story content for a diverse readership that includes finance students, independent investors, money managers, and market-focused operating teams. What connects that audience is a focus on building stronger portfolios through better research, risk awareness, and comparative analysis.