Aurora Cannabis Stock Forward View
| ACB Stock | USD 3.53 0.02 0.57% |
Predicting Aurora Cannabis' future price is a multi-variable problem that combines fundamental signals, technical structure, and market sentiment. This module focuses specifically on the hype and news dimension of that forecast.
At present, the short-cycle RSI for Aurora Cannabis stands at 40, indicating moderately negative momentum. For Aurora Cannabis, this sub-50 reading points to a soft downward drift rather than an aggressive selloff.Momentum
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.95 | EPS Estimate Next Quarter -0.04 | EPS Estimate Current Year -1.23 | EPS Estimate Next Year -0.16 | Wall Street Target Price 6.3982 |
This section relates Aurora Cannabis headline activity to recent price behavior and peer context. Options positioning and short interest are used here to outline sentiment for Aurora Cannabis.
Aurora Cannabis Short Interest Summary
Aurora Cannabis' short interest measures the total number of shares sold short but not yet covered. Rising short interest can signal growing bearish sentiment among institutional and retail investors.
200 Day MA 4.692 | Short Percent 0.2042 | Short Ratio 7.26 | Shares Short Prior Month 8.2 M | 50 Day MA 3.9246 |
Aurora RSI Snapshot
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurora Cannabis on the next trading day is expected to be 3.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.45.Aurora Cannabis Hype vs Price Pattern
Public perception of Aurora Cannabis - captured through news and social media signals - can drive Aurora Cannabis' stock price away from intrinsic value for extended periods. Analyzing these biases provides an edge for contrarian investors.
When Aurora Cannabis' market sentiment is overly bullish relative to its actual financial performance, the stock may be overvalued. Excessively negative sentiment can create buying opportunities for patient investors.
Aurora Cannabis Implied Volatility | 2.68 |
High implied volatility in Aurora Cannabis' options signals that the market anticipates large price swings in Aurora Cannabis stock. Conversely, low implied volatility indicates that investors expect relatively stable price action.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurora Cannabis on the next trading day is expected to be 3.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.45.Aurora Cannabis after-hype prediction price | $ 3.5 |
Hype signals are presented as complementary context to forecasting, technicals, analyst estimates, earnings, and momentum.
Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurora Cannabis to cross-verify projections for Aurora Cannabis. The historical view provides additional context.Rule 16 for the current Aurora contract - Pricing Context
Using the Rule 16 heuristic, the current implied volatility suggests an average daily move of about 0.17% for the 2026-03-20 options. This estimate is a volatility reference; at $ 3.53, it implies a move of about $ 0.005913 per day.
Aurora Options Open Interest - 2026-03-20
Open interest on Aurora Cannabis summarizes how many option contracts remain open and helps frame liquidity and positioning.
Aurora Cannabis Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Aurora price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Aurora using various technical indicators. When you analyze Aurora charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Aurora Cannabis Cash Forecast
To forecast cash or other financial indicators, analysts must employ diverse statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms. This approach allows them to detect underlying patterns in Aurora Cannabis' financial statements, predicting their influence on future market prices.
Cash | First Reported 2007-06-30 | Previous Quarter 95.7 M | Current Value 56.4 M | Quarterly Volatility 141.9 M |
Macro event markers
Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 14th of March 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Aurora Cannabis on the next trading day is expected to be 3.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.14 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.45 .Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Aurora Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Aurora Cannabis' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Aurora Cannabis | Aurora Cannabis Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This next-day forecast for Aurora Cannabis uses model performance to estimate practical downside and upside boundaries rather than a single point target alone. Investors should still remember that no empirical framework consistently proves that one family of forecasting models will outperform all other approaches in live markets.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Aurora Cannabis stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Aurora Cannabis stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.7149 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1385 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0343 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.4502 |
The concept of mean reversion suggests that Aurora Cannabis' price will eventually return toward its long-run average. High prices may deter value investors, while unusually low prices often attract buyers who anticipate a recovery.
After-Hype Price Density Analysis
The price distribution graph for Aurora Cannabis visualizes the statistical uncertainty around our prediction model's output. Investors should interpret the full distribution of Aurora Cannabis' outcomes, not just the central tendency, when making decisions.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
The downside and upside margins for Aurora Cannabis after major news events are estimated from historical precedent. Aurora Cannabis' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.05 and 6.95, respectively. This approach captures the empirical distribution of Aurora Cannabis' short-term price reactions without assuming any particular model of future behavior.
Current Value
The after-hype framework applied to Aurora Cannabis assumes a 3 months review window and focuses on post-sentiment normalization rather than raw momentum. This view is most useful when investors want to compare sentiment-driven price extension with a more measured post-news scenario.
Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Aurora Cannabis is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Aurora Cannabis backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Aurora Cannabis, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.55 | 3.45 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 9 Events | 7 Events | In 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
3.53 | 3.50 | 0.85 |
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Hype Timeline
On the 13th of March 2026 Aurora Cannabis is traded for 3.53. The company has historical hype elasticity of -0.03, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.05. Aurora is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 3.5. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.85%, whereas the daily expected return is presently at -0.55%. The volatility of related hype on Aurora Cannabis is about 3876.4%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.48. The company has price-to-book (P/B) ratio of 0.52. Some equities with similar Price to Book (P/B) outperform the market in the long run. Aurora Cannabis recorded a loss per share of 1.1. The company last dividend was issued on the 11th of May 2020. The firm completed a 1:10 stock split on 20th of February 2024. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in 9 days. Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurora Cannabis to cross-verify projections for Aurora Cannabis. The historical view provides additional context.Related Hype Analysis
The relationship between Aurora Cannabis and its sector peers means that news affecting one company often reverberates across Aurora Cannabis' competitive landscape. Tracking peer hype helps investors anticipate Aurora Cannabis's likely short-term price behavior.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| TKNO | Alpha Teknova | -0.65 | 38 per month | 0.00 | -0.14 | 5.04 | -7.75 | 20.91 | |
| CGC | Canopy Growth Corp | -0.05 | 10 per month | 4.43 | 0.02 | 7.34 | -9.16 | 66.41 | |
| LFCR | Lifecore Biomedical | 0.15 | 8 per month | 0.00 | -0.06 | 2.79 | -4.30 | 16.31 | |
| BIOA | BioAge Labs | -0.06 | 10 per month | 2.70 | 0.17 | 10.78 | -6.06 | 33.50 | |
| IRWD | Ironwood Pharmaceuticals | 0.10 | 11 per month | 4.73 | 0.03 | 8.93 | -6.81 | 40.81 | |
| OGI | OrganiGram Holdings | -0.29 | 31 per month | 0.00 | 0.0008 | 7.65 | -5.76 | 29.65 | |
| HITI | High Tide | -0.16 | 7 per month | 0.00 | 0.01 | 4.78 | -3.44 | 19.26 | |
| LFMD | LifeMD Inc | 0.11 | 9 per month | 3.94 | 0.06 | 12.03 | -6.38 | 28.11 | |
| ACRS | Aclaris Therapeutics | -0.08 | 8 per month | 4.43 | 0.07 | 8.26 | -7.99 | 84.20 | |
| EDIT | Editas Medicine | 0.04 | 10 per month | 4.54 | 0.05 | 11.64 | -6.01 | 26.62 |
Other Forecasting Options for Aurora Cannabis
Whether a novice or experienced investor, anyone considering Aurora needs to understand the dynamics of Aurora Cannabis' price movement. Price charts for Aurora Stock contain a significant amount of noise that can distort investment decisions.Aurora Cannabis Related Equities
The following equities are related to Aurora Cannabis within the Health Care space and can be used for peer comparison, relative valuation, or portfolio diversification. Comparing Aurora Cannabis against peers on metrics such as P/E, margins, and return on equity helps contextualize its positioning and identify relative strengths or weaknesses.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Aurora Cannabis Market Strength Events
Analyzing market strength indicators for Aurora Cannabis enables investors to understand how the stock performs relative to overall market momentum. These indicators are valuable tools for identifying when to enter or exit positions in Aurora Cannabis.
Aurora Cannabis Risk Indicators
Identifying and analyzing Aurora Cannabis' key risk indicators is a foundational step in projecting how its price may evolve. This process helps investors quantify the risk associated with Aurora Cannabis' and decide how to manage it.
| Mean Deviation | 2.83 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.15 | |||
| Variance | 17.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Aurora Cannabis
Coverage intensity for Aurora Cannabis matters because narrative visibility can influence sentiment, participation, and volatility around the name. The stronger process compares story flow with performance, theme classification, and the level of short-term market interest.
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Aurora Cannabis Short Properties
Short sentiment tied to Aurora Cannabis matters because heavier bearish pressure can change how quickly future price expectations become unstable. Used correctly, these measures can help investors decide when hedging or timing discipline may matter more than conviction alone.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 55.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 184.8 M |
More Resources for Aurora Stock Analysis
A structured review of Aurora Cannabis often starts with core financial statements and trend context. Financial ratios provide context for profitability, efficiency, and growth trends. Below are reports that help frame Aurora Cannabis Stock in context:Use Historical Fundamental Analysis of Aurora Cannabis to cross-verify projections for Aurora Cannabis. The historical view provides additional context. For more information on how to buy Aurora Stock please use our How to Buy Aurora Stock guide.Analysis related to Aurora Cannabis should be read together with other portfolio and risk tools before capital is reallocated. That is especially important when the goal is to improve the overall mix of instruments already held. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Quarterly Earnings Growth -0.95 | Earnings Share -1.10 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.068 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Aurora Cannabis is measured differently than book value, which reflects Aurora accounting equity. Aurora Cannabis' market capitalization is 199.05 M. A P/B ratio of 0.52 suggests Aurora Cannabis trades near or below book value. Enterprise value stands at 199.03 M. The intrinsic value concept focuses on underlying worth, which can diverge from market price and book value. Valuation work aligns these measures into a single context.
Note that Aurora Cannabis' intrinsic value and market price are different measures derived from different inputs. For Aurora Cannabis, key inputs include a P/E ratio of 46.94, a P/B ratio of 0.52, a profit margin of -22.51%, and ROE of -15.51%. Trading price represents the transaction level agreed by market participants.